基于手机信令数据的常住人口测算研究

Research on the Estimation of Resident Population Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data

摘要: 常住人口测算是社会经济统计的基础，亦是政府部门制定政策、配置资源和市场分析的重要依据。然而受制于人口流动的复杂性和动态性，常住人口的测算问题长期困扰着学术界和政府部门统计人员。本文系统梳理了手机信令数据采集与处理的方法，从手机信令数据的视角来探讨常住人口的测算问题，通过计算地区人口的流动性概率值，提出了一种人口数量测算模型，运用该模型，对县区或镇街的人口性质进行聚类分析，定量化地监测人口趋势与性质变化。通过对比分析发现，基于手机信令数据的人口测算方法，弥补了传统人口统计方法的局限性，为提高常住人口统计工作的效率与质量提供了一个新的方向。最后，结合数据采集的实际工作，并提出了相关建议。

Abstract: The measurement of permanent resident population is the basis of socio-economic statistics, and is also an important basis for government departments to formulate policies, allocate resources and market analysis. But due to the complexity and dynamics of population flow, the measurement of permanent population has long troubled academics and practitioners. By systematically combing the method of mobile phone signaling data collection and processing, the calculation of permanent population is discussed from the perspective of mobile phone signaling data, and a population measurement model is proposed by calculating the mobility probability value of regional population. The model was used to perform cluster analysis on the population nature of counties, districts or towns, and to quantitatively monitor population trends and property changes. Through comparative analysis, it is found that the population measurement method based on mobile phone signaling data makes up for the limitations of traditional demographic methods, and provides a new direction for improving the efficiency and quality of permanent resident demographic work. Finally, combined with the practical work of data collection, relevant suggestions are put forward.