数字经济对新能源汽车营销推广的影响——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

The Impact of Digital Economy on Marketing Promotion of New Energy Vehicles—Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

摘要: 在人工智能、云计算与大数据等数字技术加速发展的背景下，数字经济为我国新能源汽车营销推广注入了新的动能。本文基于2016~2022年中国31个省(区、市)的面板数据，构建双重机器学习模型，实证分析数字经济对新能源汽车营销推广的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：(1) 基准回归结果显示，数字经济对新能源汽车营销推广具有显著的正向影响，在调整样本区间和剔除异常值等多种稳健性检验下结论依然成立；(2) 机制检验表明，数字经济通过推动人力资本发展和促进数字技术创新间接促进新能源汽车营销推广；(3) 异质性分析显示，数字经济在东部、中部及发达地区对新能源汽车营销推广的促进作用显著，而在欠发达地区作用较弱，西部和东北地区的影响则不显著。

Abstract: In the context of the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, and other digital technologies, the digital economy has injected fresh momentum into the marketing and promotion of new energy vehicles in China. This paper constructs a double machine learning model to empirically examine the impact of the digital economy on the marketing promotion of new energy vehicles and its underlying mechanisms, using panel data from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China over the period 2016~2022. The study finds that: (1) Benchmark regression results show that the digital economy exerts a significant positive effect on the marketing and promotion of new energy vehicles, a conclusion that remains robust across various tests, including adjustments to sample intervals and the removal of outliers; (2) Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the digital economy indirectly enhances the marketing and promotion of new energy vehicles by advancing human capital development and fostering innovation in digital technologies; (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the digital economy has a significant promotional effect on new energy vehicle marketing in eastern, central, and developed regions, but a weaker effect in less developed regions, with no significant impact in western and northeastern regions.