水文情势改变度计算方法比较研究

Comparative Study on Estimation Methods for Hydrological Regime Alteration

摘要: 长江上游水库群的建成运行，对河流水文情势产生了显著的影响。基于宜昌水文站1949~2022年日流量资料，将序列分为1949~2002年、2003~2014年、2015~2022年三个不同时期；分别采用变化范围法(RVA)、直方图匹配法(HMA)、直方图比较法(HCA)、修正变化范围法(RRVA)、综合估算法(CHAE)，计算分析宜昌站水文情势改变度，并比较分析各种方法的优点和不足。三峡水库运行后宜昌站的整体水文情势改变度为55.10%，随着金沙江梯级水库群的建成运行，2015~2022年间整体水文情势改变度上升为71.33%，即宜昌站呈现重度改变，研究结果为长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源开发利用和生态环境保护提供科学支撑。

Abstract: The construction and operation of reservoir group in the upper Yangtze River basin have significantly affected downstream hydrological regime. Based on the observed daily flow data of Yichang Hydrology Station from 1949 to 2022, the flow series was divided into three parts (i.e., 1949~2002, 2003~2014 and 2015~2022). The change degree of hydrological regime of Yichang Station was calculated respectively by using RVA, HMA, HCA, RRVA and CHAE methods, and the advantages and limitations of these methods were comparatively studied. After the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the overall degree of hydrological regime alteration at Yichang Station was 55.10%. With the completion and operation of the cascade reservoirs on the Jinsha River, the overall degree of hydrological regime alteration increased to 71.33% between 2015 and 2022. This indicates that Yichang Station has experienced a significant alteration. The research results provide scientific support for the prevention and control of water and drought disasters, the development and utilization of water resources, and the protection of the ecological environment in the Yangtze River Basin.