基于历史数据从1368年至今海南岛暴雨洪涝灾害趋势分析

Trend Analysis of Rainstorm-Induced Flood Disasters in Hainan Island Based on Historical Data from 1368 to Present

摘要: 本研究基于《中国气象灾害大典·海南卷》重建了1368~2000年间海南岛暴雨洪涝灾害的连续序列，揭示了其时间演变规律、空间分布特征及气候驱动机制。结果表明，暴雨事件主要集中在5~10月，尤以9~10月最为频繁。1949~2000年间10月暴雨事件高达24次，显著高于历史同期，反映出现代时期暴雨频率与季节波动性均增强，区域极端降水过程的不稳定性加剧。空间上，万宁市暴雨发生频次与类型显著高于其他地区，暴雨与大暴雨占比达67%。反映其受地形与气候条件双重影响显著。暴雨和大暴雨为主要类型，占总事件数的主导地位，区域差异性明显。清代时期定安、万宁、琼中、海口等地区大暴雨、特大暴雨与持续性暴雨发生频率普遍较高，而明代与1912~1949年间受气候波动及记录局限性影响，暴雨事件数量显著偏少。1870~2000年间，92.3%的暴雨月份对应正相位ENSO，表明ENSO暖相位对海南极端降水具有显著的增强效应。

Abstract: Based on the Compendium of Meteorological Disasters in China: Hainan Volume, this study reconstructs a continuous series of rainstorm-induced flood events on Hainan Island from 1368 to 2000, and analyzes their temporal evolution, spatial distribution, and climatic drivers. The results show that rainstorm events were concentrated from May to October, with a peak in September-October. During 1949~2000, 24 events occurred in October alone—significantly exceeding the historical average—indicating increased frequency, stronger seasonality, and greater instability of extreme precipitation in the modern period. Spatially, Wanning City experienced the highest frequency and diversity of rainstorms, with rainstorms and heavy rainstorms accounting for 67% of total events, highlighting the combined influence of topography and climate. Regional differences were evident, with rainstorms and heavy rainstorms being the dominant types across the island. During the Qing Dynasty, the regions of Ding’an, Wanning, Qiongzhong, and Haikou experienced a relatively high frequency of heavy, extreme, and persistent rainstorm events. In contrast, the number of such events was significantly lower during the Ming Dynasty and the period from 1912 to 1949, likely due to climatic variability and limitations in historical documentation. From 1870 to 2000, 92.3% of rainstorm months corresponded to positive ENSO phases, indicating that warm-phase ENSO significantly enhances extreme precipitation over Hainan Island.