安徽省大风灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Gale Disasters in Anhui Province

摘要: 本研究基于安徽省1978~2020年气象、地理信息、承灾体(人口、GDP、农作物)及灾情等数据，通过灾情解析并结合相关分析等统计方法，识别大风灾害致灾因子，构建致灾危险性评估模型，计算致灾危险性指数。研究结果表明：大风灾害高危险区集中于皖西(金寨、霍山、舒城)、皖南中部(黄山、池州)、皖南东部(绩溪、泾县、宁国局部)及淮北–宿州交界带。人口与GDP风险分布相似，高风险区集中于市县城区，淮北及沿江地区风险范围较大。农作物风险呈现区域差异：小麦高风险区主要位于沿淮淮北及皖西、沿江西部与东部；水稻高风险区分布于沿淮、沿江及江淮间局部；玉米高风险区集中于沿淮淮北及大别山西南部。

Abstract: This study investigates the disaster-inducing factors of windstorms in Anhui Province using meteorological, geographic information system (GIS) data, disaster-bearing body data (population, GDP, and crops), and disaster records from 1978 to 2020. Disaster analysis, combined with statistical techniques such as correlation analysis, was employed to identify key hazard factors. A hazard assessment model was subsequently developed, and a hazard index was computed. The results reveal that regions with a high windstorm hazard are predominantly concentrated in western Anhui (Jinzhai, Huoshan, Shucheng), central southern Anhui (Huangshan, Chizhou), eastern southern Anhui (localized areas in Jixi, Jingxian, and Ningguo), and the Huaibei-Suzhou boundary zone. The spatial distributions of population and GDP risks exhibit similar patterns, with high-risk zones mainly located in municipal and county urban areas, and broader risk coverage observed across northern Anhui and the Yangtze River basin. Agricultural risk displays significant spatial heterogeneity: high-risk areas for wheat are primarily located along the Huai River, in Huaibei, and across western Anhui as well as the western and eastern segments along the Yangtze River; high-risk areas for rice are distributed along the Huai River, the Yangtze River, and selected parts of the region between the two rivers; whereas high-risk areas for maize are mainly concentrated along the Huai River, Huaibei, and the southwestern foothills of the Dabie Mountains.