基于Cox回归对上证指数及成交量的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Cox Regression on the Shanghai Composite Index and Trading Volume

摘要: 研究旨在分析中国股市持续涨跌周期的内在机制及政策效应。以上证指数为对象，基于生存模型和Cox回归方法，结合T + 0、T + 1及涨停板政策数据，探讨成交量与涨跌周期的动态关联。结果表明：政策环境显著影响市场稳定性，“涨停板”制度下连涨周期最长；成交量与连涨风险存在非线性关系，低成交量时增量提升风险，高成交量时增量抑制风险。结论为投资者交易决策和监管政策优化提供了理论支持，凸显差异化市场调控的必要性。

Abstract: The research aims to analyze the internal mechanism and policy effects of the continuous rise and fall cycle of the Chinese stock market. Taking the Shanghai Composite Index as the object, based on survival model and Cox regression method, combined with T + 0, T + 1 and limit up policy data, this study explores the dynamic correlation between trading volume and rise and fall cycles. The results indicate that the policy environment significantly affects market stability, with the longest continuous upward cycle under the “limit up board” system; There is a piecewise regression between trading volume and continuous rising risk, with incremental increases in risk at low trading volumes and incremental decreases in risk at high trading volumes. The conclusion provides theoretical support for investors’ trading decisions and regulatory policy optimization, highlighting the necessity of differentiated market regulation.