北京市零售业景气预警研究

Study on Early Warning of Retail Business Prosperity in Beijing

摘要: “十四五”时期，国家战略部署明确要求北京作为首都，要以建设全球创新中心为引领，加快培育金融、科技、信息、文化创意、商务服务等现代服务业。北京作为全国首个服务业扩大开放综合试点城市，零售业在服务业升级中发挥核心作用。2023年，北京市服务业增加值占GDP比重达84.8%，其中零售业依托国际消费中心城市建设战略加速转型，社会消费品零售总额连续保持万亿级规模，并在2024年突破1.37万亿元。为了更深入地了解北京市零售业的发展情况，本文选取了2003~2023年的北京零售业部分相关数据，对北京市零售业景气指数进行了研究。根据指标选取原则和行业实际情况，选取了影响北京市零售业景气指数的21个指标，通过时差相关系数，K-L信息量和峰谷对映法对景气指标进行分类，通过熵权法确定指标权重，编制北京市零售业景气合成指数。同时选取景气指标体系中的一致与一致指标，计算景气综合预警值和预警信号灯，构建了北京零售业景气指数预警系统。最后，为推动北京市零售业经济高质量发展，结合零售业景气指数周期波动状况和景气预警信号灯对北京零售业提出对策建议。

Abstract: During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the national strategic plan clearly requires that Beijing, as the capital, should be guided by the construction of a global innovation center to accelerate the cultivation of modern service industries such as finance, technology, information, cultural and creative industries, and business services. As the first comprehensive pilot city for the expansion of the service industry in China, Beijing’s retail industry plays a pivotal role in the upgrading of its service sector. In 2023, the added value of Beijing’s service industry accounted for 84.8% of its GDP. Leveraging the strategic initiative to build an international consumption center city, the retail industry has accelerated its transformation, with the total retail sales of consumer goods maintaining a trillion-yuan scale for consecutive years and surpassing 1.37 trillion yuan in 2024. To gain a deeper understanding of the development of Beijing’s retail industry, this paper selects relevant data on Beijing’s retail industry from 2003 to 2023 to study the prosperity index of Beijing’s retail industry. Based on the principles of indicator selection and the actual situation of the industry, 21 indicators influencing the prosperity index of Beijing’s retail industry were chosen. These indicators were classified using methods such as time-difference correlation coefficients, Kullback-Leibler (K-L) information quantity, and peak-trough correspondence. The entropy weight method was employed to determine the weights of the indicators, and a composite prosperity index for Beijing’s retail industry was compiled. Meanwhile, synchronous and coincident indicators from the prosperity indicator system were selected to calculate the comprehensive early-warning value of prosperity and the early-warning signal lights, thereby constructing an early-warning system for Beijing’s retail industry prosperity index. Finally, to promote the high-quality economic development of Beijing’s retail industry, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for Beijing’s retail industry based on the cyclical fluctuations of the retail industry prosperity index and the early-warning signal lights of prosperity.