基于ARIMA模型的蔬菜价格预测研究——以四川省青椒价格为例

Research on Vegetable Price Forecasting Based on ARIMA Model—Taking Sichuan Pepper Price as an Example

摘要: 文章通过“全国重点农产品市场信息平台”采集2015年1月~2025年3月四川省青椒市场批发价格数据，利用ARIMA模型对四川省未来9个月的青椒市场价格做出预测。结果表明：2025年4月~2025年12月四川省青椒市场价格整体呈现小幅上涨趋势，价格维持在4.60元/kg~5.00元/kg，没有明显的波动，平均价格为4.85元/kg，较近5年有下降。若2025年四川省青椒产量维持在正常水平，在排除极端天气等外生变量条件下，种植户可参考4.60元/kg~5.00元/kg的基准线制定采收计划。

Abstract: The article through the “national key agricultural products market information platform” collection of January 2015-March 2025 Sichuan Province, green pepper market wholesale price data, the use of ARIMA model in Sichuan Province in the next nine months to make predictions on the market price of green pepper. The results show that: the overall market price of green pepper in Sichuan Province in April 2025-December 2025 shows a slight upward trend, the price is maintained at 4.60 yuan/kg~5.00 yuan/kg, there is no obvious fluctuation, and the average price is 4.85 yuan/kg, which is a decrease compared with the last five years. If the production of green peppers in Sichuan Province in 2025 is maintained at the normal level, under the condition of excluding exogenous variables such as extreme weather, growers can refer to the baseline of RMB 4.60~5.00/kg to formulate a harvest plan.