从数据到金牌：揭示奥运奖牌驱动因素与战略机遇

From Data to Gold: Unveiling Olympic Medal Drivers and Strategic Opportunities

摘要: 本研究基于奥运奖牌数据，探讨奖牌背后的多元价值及其与国家发展的关联。团队运用ARIMA与小波神经网络(WNN)模型预测奖牌影响因素与奖牌走势，衡量各国2028年相较2024年的夺牌率变化，并预测首次获奖选手数量。通过分析不同项目与奖牌数的关系，识别关键项目与东道主效应机制。同时，系统评估“名帅效应”，筛选出资源投入最具价值的项目。研究为我国奥委会在资源配置、项目布局与人才培养等方面提供科学依据，助力提升奥运竞争力，推动体育与国家发展的协同。

Abstract: This study investigates the multifaceted value embedded in Olympic medals and their correlation with national development, based on historical Olympic medal data. Utilizing the ARIMA model and the Wavelet Neural Network (WNN), we forecast key influencing factors and future trends in medal distribution. We evaluate changes in medal-winning rates across countries from 2024 to 2028 and predict the number of first-time medalists. By analyzing the relationship between event categories and medal counts, we identify strategically critical sports and reveal the mechanisms underlying the host nation advantage. Furthermore, the study systematically examines the “star coach effect” to determine the most resource-efficient sports for investment. The findings provide a scientific foundation for the Chinese Olympic Committee in optimizing resource allocation, event planning, and talent development. This contributes to enhancing China’s Olympic competitiveness and promoting the coordinated advancement of sports and national development.