中国农业经济韧性的时空演变与地区差异

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Regional Differences of China’s Agricultural Economic Resilience

摘要: 本文采用熵值法对2012~2023年中国30个省份(不含港澳台及西藏)农业经济韧性进行评估，并运用Dagum基尼系数与核密度估计方法，对区域间差异及其演变趋势进行了深入分析。研究结果表明，全国农业韧性整体呈上升趋势，地区表现存在显著差异，东部省份如江苏表现最优，西部如宁夏相对滞后。Dagum基尼系数的动态变化反映出农业韧性的整体差距逐步缩小，区域之间的不平衡性仍是主要成因，同时，超变密度对差异的影响呈现增长态势。核密度估计显示，韧性水平提升的同时，地区间分布更趋复杂，部分区域出现明显的极化现象，尤其在中部与东北地区表现出多峰特征。总体而言，我国农业韧性建设已取得阶段性成效，但区域协调发展仍面临挑战，亟需因地制宜制定差异化政策，以实现农业系统的可持续提升。

Abstract: This study evaluates the level of agricultural economic resilience across 30 provinces in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan Region, and Tibet) from 2012 to 2023 using the entropy weight method. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are further applied to conduct an in-depth analysis of regional disparities and their spatiotemporal evolution. The results reveal a steadily increasing trend in national agricultural resilience, though significant regional heterogeneity remains. Eastern provinces such as Jiangsu exhibit the highest resilience levels, whereas western regions like Ningxia lag behind. The dynamic changes in the Dagum Gini coefficient indicate a gradual narrowing of overall disparities, with inter-regional differences remaining the primary source of imbalance. Moreover, the contribution of transvariation intensity, while relatively small on average, shows an upward trend over time. Kernel density estimation illustrates that although resilience levels are improving nationwide, the distribution among regions is becoming more complex, with evident polarization—particularly in central and northeastern China, where multimodal distributions suggest pronounced divergence. Overall, while China has achieved phased progress in enhancing agricultural resilience, regional coordination still faces challenges. Tailored, region-specific policy measures are urgently needed to promote sustainable and balanced development of agricultural systems.