基于耦合矩阵与云模型的迁建机场运行安全风险评估方法

Methodology for Operational Safety Risk Assessment of Relocated Airports Based on Coupling Matrix and Cloud Modeling

摘要: 在大型机场迁建转场过程中，运行安全风险呈现出高耦合性与多维演化特征，传统二维风险评估模型已难以满足动态复杂系统的评估需求。为此，文章提出一种融合可能性–严重性–脆弱性三维结构的运行安全风险量化方法，构建多维耦合风险评估框架。通过改进的风险矩阵模型建立三级风险等级划分体系，增强风险分级的敏感性与判别力；运用DEMATEL方法量化风险指标间的耦合强度，修正脆弱性参数以体现系统连锁失效效应；并结合云模型理论引入逆向云发生器，实现多层级风险等级的模糊映射，提升评估体系的韧性与适应性。研究以迁建机场典型运行风险指标为输入，完成风险等级识别与定量分布测算。结果表明，该方法能够有效揭示多风险要素间的非线性耦合关系，具备较高的识别精度与工程适用性。相关研究为新一代智慧机场迁建过程中的运行安全评估与分级管控策略制定提供了理论支撑与方法工具。

Abstract: In the process of relocation and transfer of major airports, operational safety risk presents high coupling and multidimensional evolution characteristics, and the traditional two-dimensional risk assessment model makes it difficult to meet the assessment needs of dynamic and complex systems. Therefore, this paper proposes an operational safety risk quantification method that integrates the three-dimensional structure of likelihood-severity-vulnerability, and constructs a multidimensional coupled risk assessment framework. Through the improved risk matrix model, a three-level risk classification system is established to enhance the sensitivity and discriminative power of risk classification; the DEMATEL method is used to quantify the coupling strength between risk indicators, and the vulnerability parameter is modified to reflect the interlocking failure effect of the system; and an inverse cloud generator is introduced in conjunction with the theory of cloud modeling, which realizes the fuzzy mapping of the risk level of the multilevel risk classification and improves the resilience and adaptability of the assessment system. The study takes typical operational risk indicators of relocated airports as inputs, and completes the identification of risk levels and quantitative distribution measurement. The results show that the method can effectively reveal the nonlinear coupling relationship between multiple risk elements, and has high identification accuracy and engineering applicability. The study provides theoretical support and methodological tools for the development of operational safety assessment and hierarchical control strategies during the relocation of new-generation smart airports.