电子商务促进农业高质量发展水平的影响机制研究：基于农业新质生产力和农业经济韧性耦合视角分析

Research on the Impact Mechanism of E-Commerce in Promoting the High-Quality Development Level of Agriculture: An Analysis Based on the Coupling Perspective of Agricultural New Quality Productivity and Agricultural Economic Resilience

摘要: 农业高质量发展水平不仅指农业全要素生产率的提升，还包含农业在面对外来冲击时的恢复、适应和革新能力，即农业新质生产力与农业经济韧性二者协调配合形成良性循环，实现传统农业向农业高质量发展水平转变，而电子商务是这种转变的重要媒介。基于此，文章采用2010~2022年我国272个城市的面板数据，先利用耦合协调度模型对农业新质生产力和农业经济韧性进行耦合形成农业高质量发展水平这一指标，再实证检验分析了电子商务对农业高质量发展水平的影响效果及其作用路径。研究发现，电子商务能够显著促进农业高质量发展水平的提升，且这种正向促进效应在非电子商务示范城市、中西部地区更加显著；机制检验分析得出，进一步提高普惠金融发展水平和科技金融发展水平是电子商务推动农业高质量发展水平发展的重要手段。而且不同类型的金融发展水平对农业高质量发展水平的调节受地形起伏度的影响较大。因此对电子商务助力农业高质量发展水平的发展提升需因地制宜，针对不同城市电子商务的发展提出相应策略以助力现代化农业强国的建设。

Abstract: The high-quality development level of agriculture encompasses not only the enhancement of total factor productivity but also the resilience, innovation, and adaptability of agriculture in response to external shocks. In other words, the synergistic interaction between the new quality productivity of agriculture and the resilience of the agricultural economy creates a virtuous cycle, facilitating the transition from traditional agriculture to a high-quality development model. E-commerce serves as a critical medium in this transformation. Using panel data from 272 Chinese cities between 2010 and 2022, this study first employs a coupling coordination degree model to integrate the new quality productivity of agriculture and the resilience of the agricultural economy, thereby constructing an indicator for the high-quality development level of agriculture. Subsequently, it empirically examines and analyzes the impact of e-commerce on this development level, as well as the underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that e-commerce significantly promotes the advancement of high-quality agricultural development, with a more pronounced effect in non-e-commerce demonstration cities and in the central and western regions. Further mechanism analysis reveals that improving the development levels of inclusive finance and technology finance is a key pathway through which e-commerce fosters high-quality agricultural development. Additionally, the regulatory influence of different types of financial development on high-quality agricultural development is strongly affected by terrain undulation. Consequently, policies aimed at leveraging e-commerce to enhance high-quality agricultural development should be tailored to local conditions. Targeted strategies should be formulated for e-commerce development across different cities to support the construction of a modern agricultural sector.