跨境电商对中国制造业出口贸易影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Cross-Border E-Commerce on the Export Trade of China’s Manufacturing Industry

摘要: 在数字经济时代背景下，跨境电商日益成为带动中国制造业出口转型升级的重要力量。本文以跨境电商对中国制造业出口贸易的影响为研究对象，构建理论分析框架并开展实证检验。研究结果表明，跨境电商发展指数与制造业出口规模显著正相关，跨境电商发展指数每提高1%，制造业出口规模平均增长1.093%。机制分析发现，产业结构升级和技术创新分别起到了完全中介作用和部分中介作用。进一步的异质性分析表明，跨境电商对中西部地区制造业出口的促进作用更为显著；相比之下，东部地区虽因产业集群和基础设施优势保持较大出口总量，但跨境电商带来的边际提升相对有限。基于以上发现，本文提出应加强科技创新应用、鼓励产品差异化、推进品牌化战略、完善法律法规体系以及加强人才培养，以进一步发挥跨境电商对制造业出口升级的带动作用，助力我国迈向制造强国。

Abstract: In the digital economy era, cross-border e-commerce has significantly influenced China’s manufacturing export sector. This study examines its impact by developing a theoretical model and performing empirical analysis. Findings indicate a strong positive relationship between the cross-border e-commerce development index and manufacturing export volumes, with a 1% rise in the index correlating to a 1.093% increase in export scale. Mechanism analysis shows that upgrading industrial structures fully mediates this effect, while technological innovation partially mediates it. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that cross-border e-commerce has a more pronounced effect on export growth in China’s central and western regions. In contrast, the eastern region, despite its advanced industrial clusters and infrastructure, sees relatively smaller marginal benefits from cross-border e-commerce, though it still dominates in total export volume. Based on these insights, the study suggests policy measures such as boosting technological innovation, fostering product differentiation, supporting brand building, refining legal and regulatory frameworks, and enhancing talent development to support China giant to a global manufacturing leader.