从资本回报到可持续困境：“数商兴农”背景下大学生返乡电商创业的动态审视

From Capital Returns to Sustainable Dilemmas: A Dynamic Examination of College Students’ Return-Hometown E-Commerce Entrepreneurship in the Context of “Digital Commerce Revitalizing Agriculture”

摘要: “数商兴农”战略驱动下，大学生返乡电商创业已成为乡村人力资本重构的核心动力。本文立足于人力资本与创业过程理论，揭示其运行逻辑：创业始于价值实现动机，但在政策、市场与社会网络的复杂互动中，其演化路径高度异质，并普遍陷入多重可持续性赤字。研究表明，经济层面的盈利脆弱性、社会层面的融入壁垒与人力资本层面的技能迭代危机，共同构成了制约创业者长期发展的系统性障碍。更为关键的机制在于，这些微观困境相互交织形成的“结构性陷阱”，不仅会消解顶层政策的赋能效应，甚至使其转化为非预期的衍生性困境。本文通过构建一个长时段的系统分析框架，深化了对国家战略微观传导复杂性的理论认知，为优化支持政策、构建内生性发展生态提供了决策参考与理论新解。

Abstract: Under China’s “Digital Commerce Revitalizing Agriculture” initiative, the return of college students to rural areas for e-commerce entrepreneurship has become a central force in reshaping rural human capital. Drawing on human capital and entrepreneurial process theories, this study unpacks the operational logic of this phenomenon. We find that while these ventures originate from motivations of value realization, their evolutionary pathways are highly heterogeneous, shaped by the complex interplay of policy, market forces, and social networks, ultimately converging into a multi-dimensional sustainability deficit. Our research reveals that systemic obstacles—namely, economic-level profit fragility, social-level integration barriers, and human capital-level skill-obsolescence crises-collectively constrain the long-term development of these entrepreneurs. More critically, we identify a key mechanism: a “structural trap” formed by the entanglement of these micro-level predicaments. This trap not only neutralizes the empowering effects of top-down policy interventions but can even transform them into unintended, adverse consequences. By constructing a longitudinal, systemic analytical framework, this study deepens the theoretical understanding of the complexities inherent in the micro-level transmission of national strategies and offers crucial insights for optimizing policy support and cultivating an ecosystem for endogenous rural development.