土地要素驱动下的山西省碳排放与新型城镇化的耦合及低碳路径研究

Research on the Coupling of Carbon Emission and New Urbanization and Low-Carbon Path in Shanxi Province Driven by Land Factor

摘要: 山西省作为典型资源型省份，面临城镇扩张高碳锁定与土地资源错配的双重挑战。研究构建新型城镇化指标体系，综合运用熵值法、耦合协调模型及协调影响力模型，分析碳排放与新型城镇化的耦合协调与协调影响力。结果表明：1) 2012~2023年山西省多数地级市碳排放总量缓慢波动上升，各地级市的新型城镇化水平缓慢上升。2) 2012~2023年山西省各地级市的耦合度和耦合协调度不断提升，耦合作用不断增强，耦合协调发展类型以磨合阶段为主发展为以协调阶段为主。3) 2012~2023年各地市的空间城镇化子系统对综合耦合协调性呈现显著的短板效应。基于此，从差异化土地政策与普适性政策方面提出土地要素驱动下的山西省低碳城镇化发展路径。

Abstract: As a typical resource-based province, Shanxi faces dual challenges: high-carbon lock-in driven by urban expansion and mismatched allocation of land resources. This study constructs a comprehensive indicator system for new-type urbanization and employs methodologies including the entropy method, coupling coordination model, and coordination influence model to analyze the coupling coordination relationship and coordination influence mechanisms between carbon emissions and new-type urbanization. The results indicate that: 1) The total carbon emissions of most prefectures in Shanxi Province rose slowly from 2012 to 2023, and the level of new urbanization in each prefecture will rise slowly. 2) The degree of coupling and coupling coordination of each prefecture-level city in Shanxi Province in 2012-2023 is increasing, the coupling influence is increasing, and the development of coupling coordination is developing from a predominantly grinding stage to a predominantly coordinating stage. 3) The spatial urbanization subsystem in various prefecture-level cities exhibited a significant short-board effect on comprehensive coupling coordination from 2012 to 2023. Based on this, the development path of low-carbon urbanization in Shanxi Province driven by land factors is proposed from the aspects of differentiated land policies and universal policies.