基于熵权TOPSIS与OLS回归模型的政府数字治理能力实证研究

Empirical Research on Government Digital Governance Capacity Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS and OLS Regression Model

摘要: 政府数字治理能力是国家治理现代化的重要组成部分，其提升对社会经济创新发展具有深远意义。本文以中国289个城市为研究对象，构建包含基础设施建设、政务服务能力、技术应用能力等维度的评估指标体系，运用熵权TOPSIS方法对其数字治理能力进行测评，并通过OLS回归模型分析其影响因素。研究发现，科学技术支出与人口规模是数字治理能力提升的双引擎，一网通办全程网办率虽具有显著正向影响，但贡献度相对较低，反映出技术效能释放依赖制度协同；大数据局的设立对数字治理能力有一定促进作用，但需配套立法或财政投入才能充分发挥效能。基于此，本文提出“技术–制度–人才”三位一体策略，建议东部强化技术引领，中西部聚焦特色场景突破，并通过数据产权改革激发治理效能，以推动区域均衡发展，助力数字治理从“单点突进”向“系统跃迁”。

Abstract: The digital governance capacity of the government is an important component of the modernization of national governance, and its improvement has profound significance for the innovative development of the social economy. This paper takes 289 cities in China as the research object, constructs an evaluation index system including dimensions such as infrastructure construction, government service capabilities, and technology application capabilities, uses the entropy weight TOPSIS method to assess their digital governance capabilities, and analyzes the influencing factors through the OLS regression model. The research finds that expenditure on science and technology and population size are the dual engines for the improvement of digital governance capabilities. Although the full-process online processing rate of one-stop online services has a significant positive impact, its contribution is relatively low, reflecting that the release of technological efficiency relies on institutional synergy. The establishment of a big data bureau has a certain promoting effect on digital governance capabilities, but it requires supporting legislation or financial input to fully exert its effectiveness. Based on this, this paper proposes a trinity strategy of “technology-system-talent”, suggesting that the eastern region strengthen technological leadership, the central and western regions focus on breakthroughs in characteristic scenarios, and stimulate governance efficiency through data property rights reform to promote balanced regional development and facilitate the transformation of digital governance from “single-point advancement” to “systematic leap”.