我国国家财政收入与支出序列分析

Analysis of China’s National Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Series

摘要: 本文以1980~2024年我国国家财政收支序列为研究对象，系统剖析了二者之间的动态关联。首先，单位根检验表明我国财政收支对数序列均为1阶单整时序，Engle-Granger协整检验证实二者存在长期均衡关系；然后，协整模型表明我国财政收支具有稳定的正向关联，接着基于协整模型对我国财政支出序列进行短期预测，并与单变量财政支出序列的预测进行了对比；接着，通过误差修正模型分析了短期调整机理，发现短期波动会以0.606的调整速度回归长期均衡；最后，格兰杰因果检验表明我国财政收入对数序列的增量对财政支出序列的增量具有单向预测能力，这一发现为理解我国财政收支动态关系提供了新的实证依据。

Abstract: This paper takes China’s National Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Series in 1980~2024 as the object of research, and systematically analyzes the dynamic correlation between the two. Firstly, the unit root test shows that the logarithmic series of China’s fiscal revenues and expenditures are all order 1 single-integrated time series, and the Engle-Granger cointegration test confirms that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two; then, the cointegration model shows that China’s fiscal revenues and expenditures are stably and positively correlated, and then short-term forecasts are made for the sequence of China’s fiscal expenditures based on the cointegration model, which is contrasted with that for the sequence of univariate fiscal expenditures; then, the short-term adjustment mechanism is analyzed through the error correction model, and it is found that the short-term fluctuations will return to the long-term equilibrium with an adjustment speed of 0.606; finally, the Granger causality test indicates that the increment of the logarithmic sequence of China’s fiscal revenue has a one-way predictive power over the increment of the fiscal expenditure sequence. This finding provides new empirical evidence for understanding the dynamic relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure in China.