基于FCFF模型的H公司企业价值评估

Enterprise Value Evaluation of H Company Based on FCFF Model

摘要: 在全球经济复杂、数字化加速的背景下，企业价值评估在资本市场中愈发重要。H公司作为以视频技术为核心的智能物联网解决方案提供商，既受益于全球数字化与AI商业化机遇，又面临经济下行、行业渗透率饱和及竞争加剧等挑战，准确评估其价值对投资决策、战略制定及了解企业真实价值至关重要。本研究基于FCFF模型，采用两阶段折现模型，结合2020~2024年财务数据预测2025~2029年自由现金流，通过资本资产定价模型确定权益资本成本，结合债务资本成本计算加权平均资本成本作为折现率，得出企业价值，最后进行了敏感性分析，以增强结论的稳健性。研究表明，FCFF模型适用于H公司这类技术驱动、现金流稳定的企业，两阶段假设匹配其“稳健主业 + 创新增量”模式。本研究丰富了企业价值评估理论在安防行业的应用，为FCFF模型的适用性和局限性提供了实践依据。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of a complex global economy and accelerating digitization, enterprise value assessment has become increasingly important in the capital market. As a smart IoT solution provider with video technology at its core, Company H has benefited from the global digitization and AI commercialization opportunities, but also faces the challenges of a downturn in the economy, saturated penetration rates in the industry, and intensified competition, so accurately assessing its value is crucial to investment decisions, strategy formulation, and understanding of the true value of the enterprise. It is crucial to accurately assess its value for investment decision-making, strategy formulation and understanding the true value of enterprises. Based on the FCFF model, this study adopts a two-stage discounting model, combines 2020~2024 financial data to forecast 2025~2029 free cash flow, determines the cost of equity capital through the capital asset pricing model, and calculates the weighted average cost of capital as the discount rate by combining with the cost of debt capital to derive the value of the enterprise, and finally conducts a sensitivity analysis to enhance the robustness of the conclusions. The study shows that the FCFF model is suitable for technology-driven enterprises with stable cash flows such as Company H, and the two-stage assumption matches its model of “stable main business + innovative incremental”. This study enriches the application of enterprise value appraisal theory in the security industry and provides a practical basis for the applicability and limitations of the FCFF model.