数字金融发展如何影响家庭旅游消费？——基于CFPS数据的实证检验

How Does Digital Financial Development Affect Household Travel Consumption?—An Empirical Examination Based on CFPS Data

摘要: 本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据和北京大学数字普惠金融指数，运用面板Tobit模型与门槛回归等方法，实证考察了数字金融对家庭旅游消费的影响效应。研究发现：首先，数字金融发展显著促进了家庭旅游消费，其中覆盖广度是核心驱动因素；异质性分析表明数字金融对城镇家庭、高消费水平家庭和女性户主家庭的促进作用更强；其次，家庭特征存在门槛效应，其中户主受教育程度超过初中时数字金融的促进效应增强，家庭收入水平呈现双重门槛，数字金融的影响随收入提高呈阶梯式递增；最后，机制分析表明，流动性约束缓解是数字金融促进旅游消费的重要路径。

Abstract: Based on China Family Tracking Survey (CFPS) data and Peking University’s Digital Financial Inclusion Index, this paper empirically examines the effect of digital finance on household travel consumption by using methods such as panel Tobit model and threshold regression. The study finds that: first, digital finance development significantly promotes household tourism consumption, in which the breadth of coverage is the core driver; heterogeneity analysis shows that digital finance has a stronger promotion effect on urban households, households with high consumption levels and female-headed households; second, there is a threshold effect on household characteristics, in which the promotion effect of digital finance is enhanced when the household head’s education level exceeds junior high school, and the level of household income shows a double threshold, and the effect of digital finance increases in a stepwise manner with the increase of income; finally, the mechanism analysis shows that liquidity constraint alleviation is an important path for digital finance to promote tourism consumption.