基于最大熵模型的中药材半夏潜在适生区预测

Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Pinellia Ternata Based on the Maximum Entropy Model

摘要: 目的：半夏(Pinellia ternata (Thunb.) Breit)具有重要药用和经济价值，目前半夏野生资源不断减少所以确定最适种植地和最佳保护区对于促进半夏资源的保育和利用发展至关重要。运用Maxent模型并结合ArcGIS软件，从而确定影响半夏生长发育的环境因子，预测半夏的适生区变化情况。结果显示，Maxent模型重复运行10次的ROC曲线的ACU平均训练值为0.909，结果具有较高的准确性。此外，确定了最干燥月份降雨量(bio_14)、最暖季节降水量(bio_18)和最寒冷月最低温(bio_6)为半夏隐性分布的主要环境因子。该成果的取得，为我国半夏资源的培养、保育及科学利用提供重要的科学和理论依据。我国半夏资源尚存在广阔的发展空间，在保障适宜温度、降水量和光照条件的前提下，可以在我国北部地区积极开展引种试种研究，从而更好地满足市场需要，并推动深化半夏资源的可持续利用与发展。

Abstract: Objective: Pinellia ternata (Thunb.) Breit has important medicinal and economic value. Currently, the wild resources of Pinellia ternata are decreasing. Therefore, determining the most suitable planting site and the best protection area is crucial to promote the conservation and utilization of Pinellia ternata resources. The Maxent model was used in combination with ArcGIS software to determine the environmental factors affecting the growth and development of Pinellia ternata and predict the changes in the suitable habitat of Pinellia ternata. The results showed that the average ACU training value of the ROC curve of the Maxent model repeated 10 times was 0.909, and the results had high accuracy. In addition, the rainfall in the driest month (bio_14), the precipitation in the warmest season (bio_18) and the minimum temperature in the coldest month (bio_6) were determined as the main environmental factors for the recessive distribution of Pinellia ternata. The achievement of this result provides an important scientific and theoretical basis for the cultivation, conservation and scientific utilization of my country’s Pinellia resources. There is still a broad space for the development of my country’s Pinellia resources. Under the premise of ensuring suitable temperature, precipitation and light conditions, we can actively carry out introduction and trial planting research in northern my country to better meet market needs and promote the sustainable utilization and development of Pinellia resources.