跨流域调水工程生态补偿策略的演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Ecological Compensation Strategies for Inter-Basin Water Diversion Projects

摘要: 南水北调西线工程是构成我国国家水网“四横三纵”的重要组成部分，而西线调水对长江流域的生态发展势必产生一定的影响。为进一步研究生态补偿机制在西线工程中的作用，本文引入生态补偿机制和激励惩罚约束机制，构建流域管理者为博弈主体的两方演化博弈模型，并对演化博弈进行了数值模拟仿真分析，结果表明：1) 无论是激励手段还是惩罚手段，都会对演化博弈系统的稳定性产生影响。2) 博弈主体的策略选择结果与额外生态收益、付出成本等因素具有较强的相关性。该研究成果可为进一步开展南水北调西线工程的生态补偿机制研究提供技术参考与建议。

Abstract: The Western route of the South-to-North Water Diversion project constitutes a crucial component of China’s national water network, known as the “four horizontal and three vertical” system. The diversion of water from this route will inevitably have a significant impact on the ecological development of the Yangtze River basin. To further investigate the role of a payment for ecosystem services mechanism in the Western Route project, this paper introduces an ecological compensation mechanism along with incentive, punishment, and constraint mechanisms implemented. Additionally, it constructs a two-party evolutionary game model wherein managers. Numerical simulation and analysis are conducted to examine this evolutionary game. The results demonstrate that: 1) Both incentives and punishments influence stability within the evolutionary game system; 2) There is a strong correlation between strategy choices made by game players and additional ecological benefits and costs incurred. These research findings can serve as technical references and provide suggestions for further exploration into a payment for ecosystem services mechanism for the western route of South-to-North Water Diversion project.