改进的MIKE BASIN在安吉两库引水工程中的应用

Application of Improved MIKE BASIN in the Two-Reservoir Diversion Project in Anji

摘要: 以安吉两库引水工程为案例，将Matlab与MIKE BASIN模型进行耦合，实现供水结果的保证率计算和模型调度参数的反复调整率定。利用1955~2016年逐月水文数据，对安吉两库引水工程的可外调水量进行研究。结果表明，安吉两库在满足本地各项用水的前提下有多余水量可外调至湖州市区。湖州市区满足90%保证率的引水规模为23.0万m³/d，对应多年平均引水量为5694万m³。如引水保证率进一步降低，则引水规模可进一步增大，对应多年平均引水量也相应增加。但模型只能在用户设定的水资源配置规则下展开计算，需进一步探索将优化算法用于模型的配置规则设定，以寻找理论上的最优方案。

Abstract: Based on the hydrological data from 1955 to 2016, this paper applied improved MIKE BASIN model coupled with Matlab to simulate the water resources allocation in the Two-reservoir Diversion Project in Anji, aiming to investigate the potential water volume to be diverted. The results indicated that, on the premise of the local water demands in Anji being met, the diversion water discharge to Huzhou was 230 thousand cubic meters per day with a guaranteed rate of 90%. The corresponding annual diversion water volume was 56.94 million cubic meters. If the guaranteed rate decreased, the diversion water discharge and annual diversion water volume could be increased. In addition, the water resources could only be allocated under the rules set by users, and further studies such as applying optimization algorithm in making allocation rules need to be investigated to find the theoretical optimal solution.