基于多维度模型与智能算法的马拉松赛事规划与运营优化问题的研究

Research on Marathon Event Planning and Operation Optimization Based on Multi-Dimensional Models and Intelligent Algorithms

摘要: 本文以马拉松赛事规划为研究对象，推动基于数据的科学决策。在赛事时机优化方面，采用熵权法确定气象因素和城市承载力指标权重，结合TOPSIS构建综合评价模型，通过MATLAB和Python进行数据处理，得出中国主要城市马拉松的最优举办时间、规模及频率组合。在赛道优化设计中，以西安为例，运用GIS空间分析和K-Mean聚类方法构建包含住宿容量、路网密度等指标的评价函数；通过遗传算法筛选起终点组合，将景区设为必选节点、餐饮设施设为加分节点形成闭环赛道；进一步采用粒子群算法(PSO)优化赛道遮阴率、交通影响和坡度，平衡专业竞技标准与参与者体验。为提升赛事吸引力，通过K-Means聚类划分年龄组别，利用LightGBM模型预测五年间隔的竞技强度变化，开发分级纪念品系统和赛前排名模拟工具，构建成绩–奖励激励机制。研究形成了城市定制化赛事日程量化方案、西安赛道优化方案及年龄组别竞技特征模式，为马拉松赛事与城市资源融合提供了可操作框架。

Abstract: In this study, the research object is marathon event planning, enabling data-driven scientific decision-making. For optimal timing selection, the Entropy Weight Method was employed to determine weights for meteorological factors and urban carrying capacity, combined with TOPSIS to construct a comprehensive evaluation model. Using MATLAB and Python for data processing, optimal schedules, scales, and frequencies for marathons across major Chinese cities were derived. In racecourse optimization, taking Xi’an as a case study, GIS spatial analysis and K-Means clustering were used to develop an evaluation function considering accommodation capacity and road network density. Genetic algorithms were applied to select start-finish combinations, with scenic spots designated as mandatory nodes and dining facilities as bonus nodes to form a closed-loop circuit. A Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm was further utilized to balance professional racing standards with participant comfort by optimizing shade coverage, traffic impact, and terrain gradient. To enhance event attractiveness, K-Means clustering segmented participants into age groups, and LightGBM models predicted competition intensity for 5-year intervals. A tiered souvenir system and pre-race ranking simulation tool were developed to create a performance-reward incentive mechanism. The research yields quantifiable plans for city-specific event scheduling, an optimized Xi’an racecourse, and age-group competition patterns, providing a practical framework for integrating marathon events with urban resources.