跨地区经营与下行风险——基于实物期权理论

Cross-Regional Operations and Downside Risks—Based on Real Options Theory

摘要: 跨国经营为企业提供了一套转换期权的组合，为企业转移生产经营活动提供潜在灵活性，抑制下行风险。但合作带来的风险并不只存在于跨国企业。企业的下行风险源于企业自身的内生不确定性与市场环境的外生不确定性，股权份额是企业内生不确定性的主要来源，企业跨地区经营利用地区间劳动力价格、市场规模等外生因素差异抑制下行风险，中国庞大的国内市场为企业跨地区经营提供了良好的外部环境，企业扩大国内各地区的经营网络，增强灵活性。本文从实物期权理论的视角，通过理论分析，使用了2010~2018年间中国上市制造业企业与子公司所在地区的地市级数据集，构建变量下行风险和股权，利用Tobit模型，研究中国制造业企业在国内跨地区经营与下行风险之间的影响因素，发现：(1) 内跨地区经营能显著降低企业的下行风险；(2) 公司在子公司的股权份额越大，企业下行风险越小，当企业进行跨地区经营时，跨地区经营将作为调节变量，削弱了股权份额与企业下行风险之间的负向关系。研究结果表明，企业跨地区经营可以抑制下行风险，子公司的自治程度有利于其生存与绩效。本研究的政策建议是政府应鼓励企业进行跨地区经营，有助于缩小各地区经济差距，对于企业的现实意义，在进行跨地区经营时，尽量赋予子公司一定的自治权利，有助于其生存，扩大现有的跨地区网络，实现实物期权。研究结论对企业在国内的跨地区经营具有重要启示。

Abstract: Transnational operations provide a portfolio of conversion options for enterprises, offering potential flexibility to transfer production and business activities, and mitigating downside risks. However, the risks associated with cooperation are not limited to multinational corporations. The downside risk of a business stems from both the endogenous uncertainty within the enterprise itself and the exogenous uncertainty of the market environment. Equity share is the primary source of endogenous uncertainty for a business. Cross-regional operations leverage differences in exogenous factors such as labor costs and market size between regions to suppress downside risks. China’s vast domestic market provides a favorable external environment for businesses to operate across regions. By expanding their operational networks across various domestic regions, enterprises enhance their flexibility. From the perspective of real options theory, this paper, through theoretical analysis, utilizes prefecture-level panel data from Chinese listed manufacturing companies and their subsidiaries from 2010 to 2018 to construct variables for downside risk and equity. Using the Tobit model, the paper investigates the factors influencing the relationship between domestic cross-regional operations and downside risk for Chinese manufacturing enterprises. The findings are as follows: (1) Domestic cross-regional operations can significantly reduce the downside risk of enterprises; (2) The larger the equity share of the parent company in the subsidiary, the smaller the downside risk of the enterprise. When conducting cross-regional operations, cross-regional operations act as a moderating variable, weakening the negative relationship between equity share and downside risk. The results suggest that cross-regional operations can suppress downside risks, and the autonomy of subsidiaries is beneficial for their survival and performance. The policy recommendation of this study is that the government should encourage enterprises to engage in cross-regional operations, which helps reduce economic disparities between regions. For enterprises, in terms of practical significance, when conducting cross-regional operations, it is advisable to grant certain autonomous rights to subsidiaries, which helps their survival and the expansion of existing cross-regional networks, realizing real options. The research conclusions provide significant insights for enterprises engaging in domestic cross-regional operations.