“双碳”目标下天然气生产工业碳计量方法优化

Optimisation of Carbon Measurement Methodology for the Natural Gas Production Industry under the “Dual Carbon” Target

摘要: 在全球能源低碳转型与国内“双碳”目标驱动下，天然气作为过渡能源的环境影响评估亟需精准碳计量方法支撑。本研究系统剖析天然气生产全生命周期(勘探开采、处理加工、输送储存)的碳排放特征，识别设备耗能、火炬燃烧、甲烷逸散等关键排放源，揭示传统排放因子法、质量平衡法等在动态排放捕捉、核算边界覆盖及数据适应性方面的局限性。研究创新性构建数据驱动的增量碳计量模型与空天地一体化监测反演模型，通过融合物联网传感器数据、工艺参数及卫星/无人机遥感数据，形成“数据采集–动态建模–实时修正”的闭环计量体系，并指出了多源数据融合精度、甲烷逸散量化、模型自适应优化及监测成本控制等技术瓶颈。研究成果为构建精准高效的天然气生产碳计量技术体系提供理论与方法参考，对推动能源行业绿色转型具有重要实践意义。

Abstract: Driven by the global low-carbon energy transition and domestic “dual-carbon” targets, the environmental impact assessment of natural gas as a transitional energy source needs to be supported by accurate carbon measurement methods. This study systematically analyses the carbon emission characteristics of natural gas production throughout its life cycle (exploration and extraction, treatment and processing, transmission and storage), identifies the key emission sources such as energy consumption of equipment, flaring and methane fugitive emissions, and reveals the limitations of the traditional emission factor method and mass balance method in terms of dynamic emission capture, accounting boundary coverage and data adaptability. The study innovatively constructs a data-driven incremental carbon measurement model and an integrated air and space monitoring and inversion model, forming a closed-loop measurement system of “data collection-dynamic modelling-real-time correction” by integrating Internet of Things (IoT) sensor data, process parameters, and remote sensing data from satellites and drones. Also, it points out the technical bottlenecks such as multi-source data fusion accuracy, methane fugitive quantification, model adaptive optimisation and monitoring cost control were also identified. The research provides theoretical and methodological references for the construction of an accurate and efficient carbon metering technology system for natural gas production, which is of great practical significance for promoting the green transformation of the energy industry.