海南岛近300年低温灾害的时空演变特征及其气候背景分析

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Cold Weather Disasters in Hainan Island over the Past 300 Years and Their Climatic Background

摘要: 本研究基于系统整理的历史文献资料，重建了1507~2000年海南岛低温灾害时间序列，并结合ENSO指数与多源再分析数据，从演变趋势、气候背景与空间响应三个层面开展分析。结果表明，该区域低温灾害具有显著的阶段性与区域性，1644~1911年与1949~2000年为两个高发期，累计49起灾害，占总数的68%。灾害主要集中在1月，1949年后向12月与2月扩展，形成1月和2月双爆发期。北部为长期低温灾害发生高频区，现代以来西部与中部灾害次数分别增至12起与13起。灾害多发生于ENSO冷相位，1940年后灾害发生更为集中。再分析数据对灾害响应存在差异，20CRv3与ERA-20C可较好反映低温灾害的冷距平特征，相关系数分别为−0.36与−0.40，ERA-20CM响应偏弱。典型灾害年距平图显示，灾害等级越高，气温异常幅度越大，冷中心区域由北部丘陵向中部及南部扩展，气温距平在−2℃至−7℃不等，白沙为降温最显著、冷中心最集中的区域。整体呈现出局部集中逐渐发展为覆盖范围更大的空间格局，反映出海南岛对极端低温事件的响应与空间异质性。

Abstract: Based on systematically collated historical literature, this study reconstructed the time series of low temperature disasters in Hainan Island from 1507 to 2000, and combined with the ENSO index and multi-source reanalysis data, analyzed from three levels: evolution trend, climate background and spatial response. The results show that low temperature disasters in the region are significantly staged and regional. 1644~1911 and 1949~2000 are two high-incidence periods, with a total of 49 disasters, accounting for 68% of the total. Disasters are mainly concentrated in January, and after 1949, they extend to December and February, forming a double outbreak period in January and February. The north is a high-frequency area for long-term low temperature disasters. Since modern times, the number of disasters in the west and central regions has increased to 12 and 13 respectively. Disasters mostly occur in the cold phase of ENSO, and disasters are more concentrated after 1940. There are differences in the response of reanalysis data to disasters. 20CRv3 and ERA-20C can better reflect the cold anomaly characteristics of low temperature disasters, with correlation coefficients of −0.36 and −0.40, respectively, and ERA-20CM has a weak response. The anomaly map of typical disaster years shows that the higher the disaster level, the greater the temperature anomaly. The cold center area extends from the northern hills to the central and southern parts, and the temperature anomaly ranges from −2˚C to −7˚C. Baisha is the area with the most significant cooling and the most concentrated cold center. The overall pattern shows that the local concentration gradually develops into a larger coverage spatial pattern, reflecting the response and spatial heterogeneity of Hainan Island to extreme low temperature events.