贵阳机场近10年初雷发生特征分析

Characteristics Analysis of First Thunder Occurrence at Guiyang Airport in Recent 10 Years

摘要: 本文利用天气实况资料，统计分析了2015~2024年10年初雷的发生天气形势，物理量场等资料。得到结论如下：1) 贵阳机场初雷天气形势主要是低层暖平流强迫类、高架雷暴类和斜压锋生类，但低层暖平流强迫类是主要天气类型。2) 从预报指数分析上看，低层暖平流强迫类，能量和水汽条件均较好，K指数和SI有一定的参考意义；斜压锋生类850 hPa和500 hPa温差达到了强对流阈值，可以作为预报参考指标；高架雷暴类，各类指数均没有规律，700 hPa和500 hPa温差在14℃以上，对于T75阈值的使用，在贵阳机场可以考虑向下调整到14℃，并结合实际天气形势，灵活使用。3) 贵阳机场初雷强度以弱雷雨为主，持续时间较短，70%的个例不超过2小时，且仅一次个例伴随小冰雹，发生冰雹时，0℃层和−20℃层高度低于春季降雹的平均高度。4) 在近10年的初雷中，9/10的个例有700 hPa低空急流，这支暖湿气流不仅是贵州冬季发生冻雨、低云的因素之一，也是导致贵州冬春季雷雨的主要原因之一。

Abstract: This paper makes a statistical analysis of the synoptic situations and physical-quantity fields of the first thunder occurrence in the past 10 years from 2015 to 2024, by using the real-time weather data. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The synoptic situations of the first thunder at Guiyang Airport are mainly low-level warm advection forcing type, elevated thunderstorm type and baroclinic frontogenesis type, among which the low-level warm advection forcing type is the main weather type. 2) From the analysis of forecast indices, for the low-level warm advection forcing type, both the energy and moisture conditions are good, and the K index and SI index have certain reference significance. For the baroclinic frontogenesis type, the temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa reaches the severe convection threshold, which can be used as a forecast reference index. For the elevated thunderstorm type, various indices have no regular pattern, and the temperature difference between 700 hPa and 500 hPa is above 14˚C. When using the T75 threshold at Guiyang Airport, it can be considered to adjust it downward to 14˚C, and it should be used flexibly in combination with the actual synoptic situation. 3) The intensity of the first thunder at Guiyang Airport is mainly weak thunderstorm, with a short duration. 70% of the cases do not exceed 2 hours, and only one case is accompanied by small hail. When hail occurs, the heights of the 0˚C and −20˚C layers are lower than the average heights of hail in spring. 4) Among the first thunder cases in the past 10 years, 9/10 of the cases have a 700 hPa low-level jet. This warm and moist air current is not only one of the factors causing freezing rain and low clouds in winter in Guizhou, but also one of the main causes of thunderstorms in winter and spring in Guizhou.