丰满度在台风“贝碧嘉”强度预报保障中的应用及启示

The Application and Enlightenment of Tropical Cyclone Fullness in the Intensity Forecast of “Bebinca”

摘要: 2413号台风“贝碧嘉”是1949年以来登陆上海最强的台风。本文利用数值预报产品、卫星反演资料，引入热带气旋丰满度，应用于“贝碧嘉”两次快速增强过程和引起的风场要素订正预报，分析丰满度和“贝碧嘉”强度之间的预报相关性。主要结论包括：1) “贝碧嘉”两次快速增强过程，丰满度都能较好地表征其强度变化。2) “贝碧嘉”引起的风场要素预报订正中，引入丰满度能较好地提高要素预报准确率。3) “贝碧嘉”生命史周期内，其强度变化与丰满度具有显著正相关，相关系数达0.83，时序变化上，丰满度的增长较“贝碧嘉”强度的增加提前6小时左右。业务化保障中，可利用6小时前的丰满度来订正台风的强度预报，进一步提升台风强度预报的准确率。

Abstract: Typhoon Bebinca was the strongest typhoon to make landfall in Shanghai since 1949. This paper utilizes numerical forecast products and satellite-derived data, innovatively introducing the concept of tropical cyclone fullness, which is applied to the two rapid intensification processes of Bebinca and the correction of wind field element forecasts caused by it. The forecast correlation between fullness and the intensity of Bebinca is also analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. During the two rapid intensification processes of Bebinca, the fullness was able to effectively characterize its intensity changes. 2. In the correction of wind field element forecasts caused by Bebinca, the introduction of fullness significantly improved the accuracy of element forecasts. 3. Throughout the life cycle of Bebinca, its intensity changes were significantly positively correlated with fullness, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. In terms of temporal sequence, the increase in fullness preceded the increase in Bebinca intensity by about 6 hours. In operational forecasting, fullness data from 6 hours prior can be used to correct the intensity forecasts of typhoons, thereby further enhancing the accuracy of typhoon intensity forecasts.