跨境供应链网络弹性策略组合优化研究

Research on Cross-Border Supply Chain Network Optimization of Multiple Resilient Strategies

摘要: 在全球经济一体化与不确定性风险频发的背景下，跨境制造商亟需构建弹性供应链网络以应对供应中断、需求波动及运输延迟等多重挑战。针对单产品、多周期跨境供应链网络设计问题，研究提出了一种以利润最大化为目标的混合整数规划模型，综合评估多源采购、后备供应商、库存冗余及后备需求方等弹性策略的协同效应。通过算例分析发现，全策略组合显著提升供应链韧性，使中断场景下利润波动率降低45%~60%，缺货成本下降40%~66%；灵敏度分析进一步揭示，主供应商中断概率、安全库存水平与市场需求增长率是影响策略效能的核心参数，需通过动态优化平衡风险抵御与成本效率。研究表明，弹性策略的集成应用可有效增强跨境供应链的稳定性与适应性，为全球化制造企业提供理论支持与实践指导。

Abstract: In the context of global economic integration and frequent uncertainties, cross-border manufacturers urgently need to build resilient supply chain networks to cope with multiple challenges such as supply disruptions, demand fluctuations, and transportation delays. This paper addresses the design problem of a single-product, multi-period cross-border supply chain network and proposes a mixed-integer programming model aimed at maximizing profit. It comprehensively evaluates the synergy effects of various resilience strategies, including multi-source procurement, backup suppliers, inventory redundancy, and backup demand sides. Through case analysis, it is found that the full strategy combination significantly enhances supply chain resilience, reducing profit volatility by 45% to 60% and shortage costs by 40% to 66% in disruption scenarios. Sensitivity analysis further reveals that the interruption probability of the main supplier, safety stock levels, and market demand growth rate are the core parameters affecting the effectiveness of the strategies, and dynamic optimization is needed to balance risk resistance and cost efficiency. The research indicates that the integrated application of resilience strategies can effectively enhance the stability and adaptability of cross-border supply chains, providing theoretical support and practical guidance for global manufacturing enterprises.