深圳机场近十五年(2010~2024)极端暴雨统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Rainstorm in Shenzhen Airport in Recent 15 Years (2010~2024)

摘要: 本文通过统计近十五年降水量发现，深圳机场存在偶数年份的年总降水量与日极端降水强度偏强的旱涝交替年际气候变化特征，但相对于机场所处的深圳市西部片区，深圳机场存在极端暴雨事件的发生频率较高，但极端降水强度却偏弱的情况。深圳机场极端暴雨事件高发于5月和8月，呈现白天降水偏多的趋势，并存在多峰值结构的特征。深圳机场极端暴雨根据环流形势特征，可分为静止锋停滞型、暖区型以及台风雨带型三类，静止锋停滞型主要出现在1~5月，暖区型为4~8月，台风雨带型为6~10月。暖区型占比达50%，凌晨至上午时段强降水主要由暖区型所导致，下午至夜间时段的强降水由暖区型与静止锋停滞型共同产生。低空急流携带充沛的南海水汽是深圳机场产生极端暴雨的重要条件，中层高空槽的强抬升作用有利于产生强对流过程，而与低空触发系统同方向的引导气流有助于形成列车效应，从而产生持续性暴雨和极端暴雨。

Abstract: Based on the statistics of the precipitation in the past 15 years, it is found that Shenzhen airport has the characteristics of interannual climate change of alternating drought and flood with strong annual total precipitation and daily extreme precipitation intensity in even years. However, compared with the western area of Shenzhen where the airport is located, the frequency of extreme rainstorm events in Shenzhen airport is higher, but the extreme precipitation intensity is weak. The extreme rainstorm events in Shenzhen Airport occurred frequently in May and August, showing a trend of more precipitation during the day with a multi peak structure. According to the characteristics of synoptic circulation, the extreme rainstorm at Shenzhen airport can be divided into three types: static stationary front type, warm zone type and typhoon rainband type. The stationary front stagnation type mainly occurs from January to May, the warm zone type from April to August, and the typhoon rainband type from June to October. The proportion of warm zone type is up to 50%, and the heavy rainfall from early morning to morning is mainly caused by this type, and the heavy rainfall from the afternoon to the night is caused by the warm zone type and the static stationary front type. The low-level jet carrying abundant water vapor in the South China Sea is an important condition for the extreme rainstorm at Shenzhen airport. The strong lifting effect of the middle-level high-level trough is conducive to the generation of strong convection process, and the guided air flow in the same direction as the low-level trigger system is conducive to the formation of train effect, resulting in continuous and extreme rainstorm.