新质生产力、环境规制与碳排放强度

New Quality Productivity, Environmental Regulation, and Carbon Emission Intensity

摘要: 本文基于2012~2021年中国30个省的面板数据，实证研究了新质生产力对碳排放强度的影响及其作用机制，并探讨了环境规制的调节效应。研究发现：(1) 新质生产力能有效降低碳排放强度；(2) 新质生产力能通过活化科技创新、优化产业结构和深化数据要素供给等间接路径，进一步减少碳排放；(3) 环境规制在新质生产力影响碳排放强度的过程中发挥正向调节作用，强化了碳减排效果；(4) 新质生产力对碳排放强度的影响存在区域异质性，在西部地区及环境保护重点城市更为显著。基于此，本文提出加快新质生产力培育、强化间接路径、完善环境规制、实施区域差异化政策等建议，以推动绿色低碳转型，助力碳中和目标。研究丰富了新质生产力与碳排放关系的实证研究，为碳减排政策制定提供了理论依据和实践参考。

Abstract: This study empirically examines the impact of new quality productivity on carbon emission intensity and its underlying mechanisms using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021, while also exploring the moderating effects of environmental regulations. The findings reveal: (1) New quality productivity effectively reduces carbon emission intensity; (2) New quality productivity can further reduce carbon emissions through indirect pathways such as stimulating technological innovation, optimising industrial structure, and enhancing the supply of data elements; (3) Environmental regulations exert a positive moderating effect on the relationship between New Quality Productivity and carbon emission intensity, amplifying carbon reduction outcomes; (4) The impact of new quality productivity on carbon emission intensity exhibits regional heterogeneity, with more pronounced effects in western regions and key environmental protection cities. Based on this, this paper proposes recommendations such as accelerating the cultivation of new quality productivity, strengthening indirect pathways, improving environmental regulations, and implementing regional differentiated policies to promote green and low-carbon transformation and support carbon neutrality goals. The study enriches empirical research on the relationship between new quality productivity and carbon emissions, providing theoretical basis and practical references for carbon reduction policy formulation.