社保减负对劳动收入分配的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Social Security Burden Reduction on Labor Income Distribution

摘要: 在优化初次分配结构、提升劳动报酬占比的政策目标下，本文聚焦2019年《降低社会保险费率综合方案》的实施，将其视为一项准自然实验，基于2015~2023年沪深A股上市公司数据，采用双重差分法实证检验社会保险缴费负担减轻对企业劳动收入份额的影响效应。研究发现：第一，社保降费政策显著提升了企业劳动收入份额，高负担企业相对于低负担企业的劳动收入份额提升了0.64个百分点；第二，企业社保缴费负担每增加1个单位，劳动收入份额提升约1.99个百分点；第三，安慰剂检验和平行趋势检验验证了研究结论的稳健性。研究结论为通过社保制度改革促进收入分配公平、推进共同富裕提供了实证依据。

Abstract: Under the policy goal of optimizing the structure of primary distribution and increasing the proportion of labor remuneration, this paper focuses on the implementation of the “Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Premium Rates” in 2019, treating it as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2023, the difference-in-differences method is adopted to empirically test the impact of the reduction in social insurance contribution burden on the labor income share of enterprises. The research findings are as follows: First, the social insurance premium reduction policy significantly increased the labor income share of enterprises, with the labor income share of high-burden enterprises increasing by 0.64 percentage points compared to that of low-burden enterprises. Second, for every one-unit increase in the social insurance contribution burden of enterprises, the labor income share increased by approximately 1.99 percentage points. Third, placebo tests and parallel trend tests verified the robustness of the research conclusions. The research conclusions provide empirical evidence for promoting fair income distribution and advancing common prosperity through social insurance system reform.