改进关键链技术在检测项目中的应用

Application of Improved Critical Chain Technology in Inspection Project

摘要: 针对检测项目工序位置对不确定性的影响和工序延期风险的问题，改进关键链技术采用三角模糊数进行任务工时估算，以50%完工率对应的工期作为重估工时，提高估算准确性；运用最小总时差识别关键链，通过消解资源冲突确定满足资源约束的关键路径；引入位置权数、风险系数及缓冲聚合原理，构建不确定性缓冲区计算模型，实现缓冲时间的合理配置。最后对案例进行蒙特卡洛模拟和对比分析。结果表明，本文的方法缓冲设置较为合理，能够满足缩短工期的需求。

Abstract: In order to solve the problem of the uncertainty caused by the working procedure position and the risk of working procedure delay, the critical chain technology is improved, and the triangular fuzzy number is used to estimate the task working hours, and the time limit corresponding to 50% completion rate is used as the reassessed working hours to improve the estimation accuracy. The minimum total time difference is used to identify the critical chain, and the critical path satisfying resource constraints is determined by resolving resource conflicts. By introducing position weight, risk coefficient and the principle of buffer aggregation, the calculation model of uncertain buffer is constructed to realize the reasonable allocation of buffer time. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation and comparative analysis are carried out on the case. The results show that the buffer setting of this method is reasonable and can meet the demand of shortening the construction period.