中国资源型城市转型发展政策效应评估

Evaluation on the Policy Effect of Transformation Development of Resource-Based Cities in China

摘要: 资源型城市一直以来是我国重要的能源资源战略保障基地，但随着1978年我国实行改革开放，在初期，资源型城市由于长期高强度的资源开发，在21世纪资源型城市面临着资源短缺的窘境，资源型城市的转型和发展已迫在眉睫。为此，国家在2013年发布了《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013~2020年)》，为资源型城市转型发展提供战略性方针。本文围绕“该项规划的实施，是否有效促进了资源型城市转型发展？”这一问题，首先，本文利用全国248个地级市2005~2019年的数据作为样本，以经济发展作为被解释变量，政策效应作为核心解释变量，其次，为缓解自选择偏差，运用PSM-DID法探究政策实施对资源型城市经济发展的影响，最后，为保证回归结果的稳健性，进行了平行趋势检验以及安慰剂检验。基于此，本文得出该项《规划》的实施对资源性城市转型发展起到了促进作用，平均意义上，使得地区经济水平上涨3.03个百分点，并提出以下建议：一、协调发展，有序开发综合利用资源；二、统筹兼顾，落实政策推动效应。

Abstract: Resource-based cities, as an important strategic security base of energy and resources in China, are faced with a situation of resource shortage due to the continuous high-intensity resource exploitation in resource-based cities in the early stage of reform and opening up, and the transformation and development of resource-based cities is imminent. Therefore, on the basis of summarizing historical experience, The State Council issued the National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-Based Cities (2013~2020) in 2013 to provide strategic guidelines for the transformation and development of resource-based cities. This paper focuses on “whether the implementation of this plan effectively promotes the transformation and development of resource-based cities?” Firstly, 248 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2019 are taken as samples, economic development is taken as the explained variable, and policy effect is taken as the core explanatory variable. Secondly, in order to alleviate self-selection bias, pSM-DID method is used to explore the impact of policy implementation on the economic development of resource-based cities. Finally, to ensure the robustness of regression results, parallel trend test and placebo test were carried out. Based on this, this paper concludes that the implementation of the Plan has played a role in promoting the transformation and development of resource-based cities. On average, the regional economic level has risen by 3.03 percentage points. The following suggestions are put forward: First, coordinated development, orderly development and comprehensive utilization of resources; Second, overall consideration and implementation of policies to promote their effects.