人口老龄化、技术进步与经济增长

Population Ageing, Technological Progress and Economic Growth

摘要: 人口老龄化导致我国经济增速变缓。人口老龄化对经济增长的抑制效应主要是通过改变劳动力供给、人力资本积累、技术进步和政府支出等途径产生的。本文基于生命周期理论和经济增长理论框架，从技术进步视角出发，系统考察了人口老龄化对宏观经济增长的影响，并重点分析了技术进步在其中所起到的调节效应。文章收集了中国31个省份2011~2021年的面板数据，并采用固定效应与调节效应模型进行实证检验。结果表明：(1) 人口老龄化会显著地抑制经济增长；(2) 此影响存在区域异质性：仅在中西部地区显著；(3) 技术进步能有效调节老龄化的负面效应，显著缓解其对经济增长的抑制。

Abstract: Population ageing has led to slower economic growth in China. The inhibitory effect of population aging on economic growth is mainly produced through changing labour supply, human capital accumulation, technological progress and government expenditure. Based on the framework of life cycle theory and economic growth theory, this article systematically examines the impact of population aging on macroeconomic growth from the perspective of technological progress, and focuses on the moderating effect of technological progress. The article collects panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 and empirically tests them using fixed effects and moderating effects models. The results show that: (1) population aging significantly inhibits economic growth; (2) there is regional heterogeneity in this effect: it is significant only in the central and western regions; (3) technological progress can effectively moderate the negative effects of aging and significantly alleviate its inhibition of economic growth.