实物期权理论与企业投资决策的研究
Research on Real Option Theory and Corporate Investment Decision
DOI: 10.12677/mm.2025.159264, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 王凯婕：内蒙古化工职业学院管理工程系，内蒙古 呼和浩特；闫晓磊：内蒙古公安厅网络安全监控中心三支队，内蒙古 呼和浩特
关键词: 实物期权理论；内生不确定性；外生不确定性；Real Options Theory； Endogenous Uncertainty； Exogenous Uncertainty
摘要: 本文回顾了关于实物期权理论的基本原理与分类。研究了理论的核心基础——不确定性，实物期权如何为管理者在承诺与灵活之间、竞争与合作之间的权衡提供信息，并展示了它是怎样独特地解决战略中的基本问题的。管理者面临竞争或合作等选择，因而采取三种不同实物期权分析方法进行有效补充。企业在投资中选择不确定性较高的项目，使得跨境企业利用企业的灵活性在内生、外生不确定性中抑制其下行风险。
Abstract: This paper reviews the fundamental principles and classifications of real options theory. It examines the core foundation of the theory—uncertainty, and how real options provide insights for managers in balancing commitment with flexibility, as well as competition with cooperation. It demonstrates how real options uniquely address fundamental issues in strategy. Managers face choices such as competition or cooperation, and therefore adopt three different real options analysis methods for effective supplementation. Enterprises choose projects with higher uncertainty in investment, allowing multinational corporations to leverage their flexibility to mitigate downside risks amidst both endogenous and exogenous uncertainties.
文章引用：王凯婕, 闫晓磊. 实物期权理论与企业投资决策的研究[J]. 现代管理, 2025, 15(9): 228-234. https://doi.org/10.12677/mm.2025.159264

参考文献

[1] Song, S., Makhija, M. and Lee, S. (2014) Within-Country Growth Options versus Across-Country Switching Options in Foreign Direct Investment. Global Strategy Journal, 4, 127-142. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[2] McGrath, R.G. (1997) A Real Options Logic for Initiating Technology Positioning Investments. The Academy of Management Review, 22, 974-996. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[3] McGrath, R.G. (1999) Falling Forward: Real Options Reasoning and Entrepreneurial Failure. The Academy of Management Review, 24, 13-30. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[4] Tong, T.W. and Li, Y. (2011) Real Options and Investment Mode: Evidence from Corporate Venture Capital and Acquisition. Organization Science, 22, 659-674. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[5] 王泽宇, 刘刚, 梁晗. 中国企业对外投资选择的多样性及其绩效评价[J]. 中国工业经济, 2019(3): 5-23.
[6] Bowman, E.H. and Hurry, D. (1993) Strategy through the Option Lens: An Integrated View of Resource Investments and the Incremental-Choice Process. The Academy of Management Review, 18, 760-782. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[7] 饶品贵, 岳衡, 姜国华. 经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J]. 世界经济, 2017, 40(2): 27-51.
[8] Hurry, D., Miller, A.T. and Bowman, E.H. (1992) Calls on High-Technology: Japanese Exploration of Venture Capital Investments in the United States. Strategic Management Journal, 13, 85-101. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[9] Ruhnka, J.C. and Young, J.E. (1991) Some Hypotheses about Risk in Venture Capital Investing. Journal of Business Venturing, 6, 115-133. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[10] Kaplan, S.N. and Stromberg, P. (2003) Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts. Review of Economic Studies, 70, 281-315. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[11] 陈莹, 邹晓慧, 黄丹霞. 经济政策不确定性对我国企业国内并购的影响研究[J]. 现代财经(天津财经大学学报), 2021, 41(11): 39-59.
[12] 罗鹏飞, 刘新乐, 陆婷, 等. 碳减排下企业并购决策[J/OL]. 中国管理科学, 1-13. 2025-08-05.[CrossRef] 
[13] Balakrishnan, S. and Wernerfelt, B. (1986) Technical Change, Competition and Vertical Integration. Strategic Management Journal, 7, 347-359. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[14] Campa, J.M. (1993) Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 614-622. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[15] Folta, T.B. and O'Brien, J.P. (2004) Entry in the Presence of Dueling Options. Strategic Management Journal, 25, 121-138. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[16] Williamson, O.E. (1991) Comparative Economic Organization: The Analysis of Discrete Structural Alternatives. Administrative Science Quarterly, 36, 269-296. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[17] Trigeorgis, L. (1996) Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation. MIT Press.
[18] Triantis, A. (2005) Realizing the Potential of Real Options: Does Theory Meet Practice? Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 17, 8-16. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[19] Buckley, P.J. and Casson, M.C. (1998) Models of the Multinational Enterprise. Journal of International Business Studies, 29, 21-44. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[20] Fisch, J.H. and Zschoche, M. (2012) The Effect of Operational Flexibility on Decisions to Withdraw from Foreign Production Locations. International Business Review, 21, 806-816. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[21] Belderbos, R., Tong, T.W. and Wu, S. (2014) Multinationality and Downside Risk: The Roles of Option Portfolio and Organization. Strategic Management Journal, 35, 88-106. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[22] 周超, 苏冬蔚. 产能过剩背景下跨国经营的实物期权价值[J]. 经济研究, 2019, 54(1): 20-35.

为你推荐