新质生产力与数字经济发展的实证研究——基于耦合协调度模型与因子障碍度模型

An Empirical Study on the Development of New Quality Productive Forces and the Digital Economy—Based on Coupling Coordination Degree and Factor Hindrance Degree Models

摘要: 为了探究新质生产力与数字经济发展耦合协调的时空演化规律，识别区域协同发展的核心障碍因子，本文从三个维度构建新质生产力评价体系，四个维度构建数字经济评价体系，运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型与障碍因子模型，基于2011~2023年中国30个省(市、区)的面板数据，从全国、区域、省域层面展开研究分析。结果显示：全国耦合协调度整体上升但水平较低，新质生产力综合指数多数年份高于数字经济；区域差异显著，东部协调发展领先，中、西部逐步追赶，东北相对滞后。障碍因子方面，新质生产力主要受发明专利申请受理密度和工业机器人安装密度制约，数字经济核心障碍为软件业务收入和电子商务销售额，且存在区域与省域差异。研究结论为推动二者协同发展、促进经济高质量发展提供科学依据。

Abstract: To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of coupling coordination between New Quality Productive Forces (NQPF) and the Digital Economy (DE), and to identify critical limiting factors for regional coordinated development, this study constructs a three-dimensional NQPF evaluation system and a four-dimensional DE evaluation framework. Employing the entropy method, revised coupling coordination degree model, and obstacle factor model, we analyze panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (cities, regions) (2011~2023) at national, regional, and provincial levels. The results indicate that: National coupling coordination exhibited an upward trend but remained at a relatively low level, with the comprehensive NQPF index exceeding the DE index in most years; Significant regional disparities existed, where the eastern region led in coordinated development, the central and western regions gradually converged, and the northeast lagged. Regarding limiting factors, NQPF was primarily constrained by the density of invention patent applications and industrial robot installations, whereas DE development was hindered by software business revenue and e-commerce sales volume, with notable regional and provincial variations. These findings provide empirical evidence for promoting synergistic NQPF-DE development and advancing high-quality economic growth.