气候变化背景下五叶地锦在中国的潜在适生区预测

Projecting the Potential Suitable Habitat of Parthenocissus quinquefolia in China under Climate Change

摘要: 五叶地锦(Parthenocissus quinquefolia)是多年生藤本植物，常用于城市绿化、降尘以及医药领域，为探究气候变化对五叶地锦适生区的影响，本研究基于519条分布点位数据和19个生物气候因子，利用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS技术预测了当前及未来四个时期的四种气候情景(ssp126、ssp245、ssp370、ssp585)下其在中国潜在适生区的分布情况。结果表明：MaxEnt预测结果可靠(AUC = 0.928)，年均降水量、最暖季降水量、最冷月最低温是主导因子，其适宜阈值分别为753.19~1891.42 mm、435.42~721.89 mm和−4.90℃~5.66℃；当前气候条件下，适生区面积为215.15 × 10⁴ km²，集中分布于中南部省份；未来适生区呈扩张趋势，尤以高排放情景显著：2081~2100年SSP370情景面积达413.67 × 10⁴ km²，较当前增长92.27%，扩张区向华北北部、西北东部及东北迁移；研究揭示五叶地锦对湿润气候的依赖性及气候变暖下的适应性扩张潜力，为潜在引种区域的生态风险评估提供了科学参考。

Abstract: Parthenocissus quinquefolia is a perennial vine widely used in urban greening, dust reduction, and the pharmaceutical industry. To explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats, this study predicted the distribution of its potential suitable habitats in China under current and future climate conditions using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS technology, based on 519 distribution records and 19 bioclimatic variables. Future predictions covered four periods under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results showed that the MaxEnt model had high prediction reliability (AUC = 0.928). Annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month were identified as the dominant factors, with optimal thresholds of 753.19~1891.42 mm, 435.42~721.89 mm, and −4.90˚C ~5.66˚C, respectively. Under current climate conditions, the area of suitable habitats was 215.15 × 10⁴ km², concentrated in provinces in central and southern China. Future suitable habitats are projected to show an expanding trend, particularly under high-emission scenarios. By the 2081~2100 period, the suitable habitat area under the SSP370 scenario will reach 413.67 × 10⁴ km², an increase of 92.27% compared to the current period. The expansion areas will migrate toward northern North China, eastern Northwest China, and Northeast China. This study reveals the dependence of Parthenocissus quinquefolia on humid climates and its potential for adaptive expansion under global warming. Research reveals Parthenocissus quinquefolia’s dependence on humid climates and its potential for adaptive expansion under global warming, offering a scientific reference for assessing ecological risks in prospective introduction areas.