教练流动、东道国效应与经济补偿对奥运马太效应的影响

The Impact of Coach Mobility, Host Country Effects, and Economic Compensation on the Matthew Effect in the Olympics

摘要: 奥运奖牌分布长期呈现“马太效应”——强者愈强、弱者愈弱的格局，其成因与破解机制是体育经济学研究的重要议题。本文针对三大核心变量展开分析：通过构建名教练贡献率ω量化模型，结合决策树与随机森林回归识别外籍教练对奖牌得分率的影响及项目–国家匹配规律；运用双重差分法(DID)对东道国制度质量进行动态效应分解，揭示举办次数与边际效应的关系；借助聚类分析探究GDP与人口的非对称补偿效应。研究发现：外籍教练平均提升奖牌得分率15.8%，中美案例中这一比例达40%~50%，但存在显著项目适配差异；东道国效应呈边际递减，首办增益12.3%，四次后转为负效应，制度质量(裁判公正、场地管理)是关键调节变量；中国等国家以低人均GDP结合高人口实现高奖牌数的案例，印证了经济人口补偿效应对单一经济决定论的挑战。这些发现为解析奥运奖牌格局、探索“马太效应”破解路径提供了实证支撑。

Abstract: The long-term distribution of Olympic medals presents a “Matthew effect”—a pattern where the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker. The causes and solutions to this phenomenon are important topics in sports economics research. This paper analyzes three core variables: by constructing a quantitative model for the contribution rate of star coaches (ω), combined with decision tree and random forest regression, it identifies the impact of foreign coaches on medal scoring rates and the matching rules between events and countries; it uses the difference-in-differences (DID) method to decompose the dynamic effects of the host country’s institutional quality, revealing the relationship between the number of hosting and marginal effects; and it explores the asymmetric compensation effect between GDP and population through cluster analysis. The study finds that foreign coaches increase the medal scoring rate by an average of 15.8%, with this proportion reaching 40%~50% in the cases of China and the United States, but there are significant differences in event adaptation. The host country effect shows marginal diminishing returns: the first hosting brings a 12.3% gain, and after four hostings, it turns into a negative effect, with institutional quality (referee impartiality, venue management) being a key regulating variable. Cases such as China, where a low per capita GDP combined with a large population achieves a high number of medals, confirm that the economic-population compensation effect challenges the single economic determinism. These findings provide empirical support for analyzing the pattern of Olympic medals and exploring paths to break the “Matthew effect”.