数字化转型期永辉超市企业价值评估研究

Research on the Enterprise Value Evaluation of Yonghui Superstores during the Digital Transformation Period

摘要: 在数字化转型与消费升级的背景下，传统零售企业面临价值重估的迫切需求。本文以永辉超市为研究对象，采用折现现金流法(DCF)与可比公司法(CCA)构建双轨估值框架，结合其战略转型特征与行业变革趋势，系统分析企业价值创造逻辑。研究发现：DCF模型测算的股权价值为795.75亿元，对应股价8.77元/股，而CCA模型下市销率、市净率估值分别为400.04亿元与465.84亿元，估值差异本质反映市场对其“门店调改 + 供应链整合”转型成功率的预期分歧，DCF隐含转型成功率 ≥ 70%，而CCA仅≤40%。敏感性分析表明，加权平均资本成本(WACC)与永续增长率(g)是影响估值的关键参数，其中WACC每上升1%将导致估值下降15.5%。研究为转型期零售企业价值评估提供了方法论参考，建议永辉超市通过资产负债表修复与会员制生态构建，兑现DCF模型蕴含的长期增长潜力。

Abstract: Under the backdrop of digital transformation and consumption upgrade, traditional retail enterprises are facing an urgent need for value reevaluation. This paper takes Yonghui Superstores as the research object, and adopts the discounted cash flow method (DCF) and comparable company analysis (CCA) to construct a dual-track valuation framework. By combining its strategic transformation characteristics and industry change trends, it systematically analyzes the logic of enterprise value creation. The research finds that the equity value calculated by the DCF model is 79.575 billion yuan, corresponding to a share price of 8.77 yuan per share. However, the market value-to-sales ratio and market value-to-book ratio valuations under the CCA model are 40.004 billion yuan and 46.584 billion yuan, respectively. The valuation difference essentially reflects the market’s expectation divergence on the success rate of its “store renovation and supply chain integration” transformation. The DCF model implies a transformation success rate of ≥70%, while the CCA model only implies ≤40%. Sensitivity analysis shows that the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the perpetual growth rate (g) are the key parameters affecting the valuation, and a 1% increase in WACC will lead to a 15.5% decrease in valuation. The research provides a methodological reference for the value assessment of retail enterprises in the transformation period, and suggests that Yonghui Superstores should realize the long-term growth potential implied in the DCF model through balance sheet repair and the construction of a membership-based ecosystem.