乌兰察布市风速与风向的联合分布建模与多模型比较研究
Joint Distribution Modeling and Multi-Model Comparative Study of Wind Speed and Direction in Ulanqab City
DOI: 10.12677/aam.2025.1410427, PDF,    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 张 岑, 贾俊梅*, 王爽爽：内蒙古工业大学理学院，内蒙古 呼和浩特
关键词: 风速分布；风向建模；Copula函数；von Mises分布；概率模型；Wind Speed Distribution； Wind Direction Modeling； Copula Function； von Mises Distribution； Probabilistic Model
摘要: 风能资源的精准评估对风电场选址、风机设计及运行优化具有重要意义。本文以内蒙古乌兰察布市为研究区域，选取化德县、集宁区和四子王旗三处典型站点，基于2015~2024年逐小时风速与风向数据，系统开展统计建模与联合分析。关于风速分布，引入Weibull、Gamma、Lognormal、GEV和Burr五种模型，并通过AIC、RMSE与R²进行比较，结果表明Gamma分布在化德县与四子王旗表现最佳，而集宁区则更适合Lognormal分布。风向分布采用高阶混合von Mises模型以刻画其多模态特征。进一步利用Frank、Gumbel与Clayton Copula函数建立风速–风向联合模型，结果显示Frank Copula在三站点均具有最优拟合性能。研究表明，不同地貌下风速与风向的统计特性差异显著，联合分布模型能够更准确地反映其依赖结构。本文成果为复杂地形地区的风能资源评估与区域风电开发提供了方法支撑与理论参考。
Abstract: The precise assessment of wind energy resources is of great significance for the site selection of wind farms, the design of wind turbines and the optimization of their operation. This paper takes Ulanqab City, Inner Mongolia as the research area and selects three typical sites, namely Huade County, Jining District and Siziwang Banner. Based on the hourly wind speed and direction data from 2015 to 2024, statistical modeling and joint analysis are systematically carried out. Regarding the wind speed distribution, five models, namely Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, GEV and Burr, were introduced and compared through AIC, RMSE and R². The results showed that the Gamma distribution performed best in Huade County and Siziwang Banner, while the Lognormal distribution was more suitable in Jining District. The wind direction distribution adopts a high-order hybrid von Mises model to characterize its multimodal features. The joint model of wind speed and direction was further established by using the Frank, Gumbel and Clayton Copula functions. The results showed that Frank Copula had the optimal fitting performance at all three stations. Research shows that the statistical characteristics of wind speed and direction vary significantly under different landforms, and the joint distribution model can more accurately reflect their dependent structure. The achievements of this paper provide methodological support and theoretical reference for the assessment of wind energy resources and regional wind power development in complex terrain areas.
文章引用：张岑, 贾俊梅, 王爽爽. 乌兰察布市风速与风向的联合分布建模与多模型比较研究[J]. 应用数学进展, 2025, 14(10): 138-151. https://doi.org/10.12677/aam.2025.1410427

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