数字经济背景下电子商务发展方向的主题建模与演化分析

Thematic Modeling and Evolutionary Analysis of E-Commerce Development Directions in the Context of the Digital Economy

摘要: 在数字经济快速发展的背景下，中国电子商务在政策引导与技术创新的共同推动下呈现多元化演进趋势。本文基于中国知网(CNKI) 2015~2025年数字经济背景下的电子商务相关文献，采用文本挖掘与LDA主题建模方法，从语义层面识别出12个主要发展方向，包括乡村振兴与农村电商、跨境贸易规则与全球治理、数字化转型与产业升级等。结合时间切片分析与增长率聚类，进一步归纳出四类典型演化模式：快速上升型、稳步增长型、阶段性起势型和波动发展型。研究结果显示，乡村电商、跨境电商和数字化转型等方向在近年快速升温，成为研究与政策关注的核心；平台治理、区域评价与税收征管等议题则呈现长期稳健增长；而“一带一路”合作与互联网经济等主题则受政策与市场环境影响，表现出阶段性波动。总体而言，中国电子商务正由早期高速扩张迈向高质量发展，呈现全球化、智能化和可持续化的深度演进特征。本研究通过定量化主题建模与演化分析，揭示了电子商务发展方向的多维路径及演化模式，为政策制定、产业布局与学术研究提供实证参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of rapid digital economic development, China’s e-commerce sector exhibits diversified evolutionary trends driven by both policy guidance and technological innovation. This study analyzes e-commerce-related literature from 2015 to 2025 within the digital economy context, sourced from China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). Employing text mining and LDA topic modeling, it identifies 12 primary development directions at the semantic level, including rural revitalization and rural e-commerce, cross-border trade regulations and global governance, and digital transformation and industrial upgrading. Combining time-slice analysis and growth rate clustering, four typical evolutionary patterns emerge: rapid ascending, steady growth, phased momentum, and fluctuating development. Findings indicate that rural e-commerce, cross-border e-commerce, and digital transformation have gained significant traction in recent years, becoming core areas of research and policy focus. Meanwhile, topics like platform governance, regional evaluation, and tax administration exhibit long-term steady growth. While themes like Belt and Road cooperation and the internet economy exhibit phased fluctuations influenced by policy and market conditions. Overall, China’s e-commerce sector is transitioning from early-stage rapid expansion toward high-quality development, demonstrating deep evolutionary characteristics of globalization, intelligence, and sustainability. Through quantitative thematic modeling and evolutionary analysis, this study reveals the multidimensional pathways and dynamic patterns of e-commerce research, providing empirical references for policy formulation, industrial planning, and academic inquiry.