考虑双重冲击效应的多状态系统可靠性建模与分析

Molding and Analysis of Reliability of Multi-State Systems Considering Double Shock Effects

摘要: 针对现有性能共享系统可靠性忽视组件层次冲击影响的问题，本文旨在构建一个同时考虑组件与总线双重冲击效应的可靠性建模方法，提出一种基于加权k-out-of-n系统的改进模型，以提高评估准确性。通过将有效/极端冲击效应嵌入组件连续时间马尔可夫链(CTMC)的生成矩阵，并将其与总线收到的冲击响应进行同步整合，构建“退化–冲击”统一框架。使用蒙特卡洛模拟与通用生成函数(UGF)技术进行系统可靠性评估与分析。模拟结果表明，与基准模型对比，双重冲击使系统可靠性降低18.26%，平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)缩短6.5%。参数敏感性分析显示系统可靠性对有效冲击概率更为敏感。所提模型能有效避免对系统可靠性的高估，为高可靠性设施在冲击环境下的防护策略制定提供了更为精准的理论支撑。

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that the reliability of existing performance sharing systems ignores the impact effects of component-level shocks, this paper aims to construct a reliability modeling method that simultaneously considers the dual impact effects of components and buses, and proposes an improved model based on the weighted k-out-of-n system to improve the assessment accuracy. A unified “degradation-shock” framework is constructed by embedding the effective/extreme shock effects into the generation matrix of the component continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) and integrating it synchronously with the shock response received from the bus. Monte Carlo simulation and Universal Generating Function (UGF) technique are used to evaluate and analyze the system reliability. The simulation results show that, compared with the baseline model, the dual shocks reduce the system reliability by 18.26% and the mean time between failures (MTBF) by 6.5%. The parameter sensitivity analysis shows that the system reliability is more sensitive to the effective shock probability. The proposed model can effectively avoid the overestimation of system reliability, and provides a more accurate theoretical support for the formulation of protection strategies for high-reliability facilities in shock environments.