“双碳”目标下中国四大工业基地能源–生态效率时空分析与影响机制研究

Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Impact Mechanisms of Energy-Ecological Efficiency in China’s Four Major Industrial Bases under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

摘要: 本研究聚焦于“双碳”目标下中国四大工业基地能源与生态效率的动态测度、时空分析规律及三重效应影响机制研究。首先，运用NDDF模型和Luenberger指数进行效率测度，并进行时空分析可视化。其次，利用空间DID实证检验，深度解析四大工业基地效率时空分析的影响机制(“污染避难所效应”–“邻里效应”–“外溢效应”联动机制)。最后，依据研究结果提出基于时空分析分异特征的三重效应协同治理策略，为工业基地绿色发展与转型提供多尺度量化决策支持。结果表明：2012~2022年四大工业基地能源效率与生态效率均显著提升，但区域分化明显。时空分析可视化反映了地理邻近性对技术溢出与污染扩散的双向传导作用。同时，空间DID检验证实了三重效应的深度耦合关系。

Abstract: This study focuses on the dynamic measurement, spatio-temporal analysis patterns, and triple-effect influence mechanisms of energy and ecological efficiency in China’s four major industrial bases under the “dual carbon” goals. First, the NDDF model and Luenberger index are employed for efficiency measurement, followed by spatio-temporal analysis visualization. Second, spatial DID empirical tests are used to deeply analyze the influence mechanisms of efficiency spatiotemporal analysis in the four major industrial bases (the “pollution refuge effect”—“neighborhood effect”—“spillover effect” linkage mechanism). Finally, based on the research results, a triple effect synergistic governance strategy is proposed based on the spatiotemporal analysis differentiation characteristics, providing multi-scale quantitative decision-making support for the green development and transformation of industrial bases. The results indicate that from 2012 to 2022, the energy efficiency and ecological efficiency of the four major industrial bases have both significantly improved, but regional differentiation is evident. Spatio-temporal analysis visualization reflects the bidirectional transmission effect of geographical proximity on technology spillover and pollution diffusion. Meanwhile, spatial DID testing confirms the deep coupling relationship among the three effects.