东北三省城市经济韧性测度分析

Analysis of Urban Economic Resilience in China’s Northeast Provinces

摘要: 在城镇化高速发展时期，经济韧性水平是决定城市发展质量与可持续性的关键因素。本文以东北三省34个地级市为研究对象，构建包含抵御与恢复力、适应与调整力、创新与转型力三个子系统的评价指标体系，采用熵值法以及综合评价模型测度2010年、2015年、2020年的城市经济韧性水平，并分析其时序演变特征。结果表明，2010~2020年间，东北三省城市经济韧性综合指数呈现缓慢上升趋势，但区域内部差异显著且持续存在，全域城市经济韧性由前十年大幅度增长演变为后十年的部分缓慢增长。2010~2020年间，东北三省总体城市经济韧性呈现“部分变动但整体稳定增长”的演变特征。本研究在一定程度上可以为东北三省城市经济韧性建设提出一些可供参考的依据。

Abstract: During periods of rapid urbanization, economic resilience serves as a critical determinant of urban development quality and sustainability. This study examines 34 prefecture-level cities across China’s Northeast region. It constructs an evaluation framework comprising three subsystems: resilience and recovery capacity, adaptation and adjustment capacity, and innovation and transformation capacity. Employing the entropy method and a comprehensive evaluation model, the research measures urban economic resilience levels in 2010, 2015, and 2020, analyzing their temporal evolution. Results indicate that from 2010 to 2020, the comprehensive economic resilience index of cities in the three northeastern provinces showed a slow upward trend. However, significant and persistent regional disparities existed, with overall urban economic resilience shifting from substantial growth in the first decade to partial slow growth in the latter decade. From 2010 to 2020, the overall urban economic resilience of the three northeastern provinces exhibited an evolutionary pattern characterized by “partial fluctuations but overall stable growth”. This study provides a reference framework for enhancing urban economic resilience in the three northeastern provinces.