泰安浅层土壤湿度与降水和气温的季节关联分析

Shallow Soil Moisture in Tai’an: Seasonal Correlations with Precipitation and Temperature

摘要: 本研究基于2015~2024年泰安市国家应用气象观测站的土壤相对湿度数据及国家基本气象站的气温和降水观测数据，采用Pearson相关系数和偏相关分析方法，探讨了不同季节条件下浅层土壤湿度与降水、气温的相关关系及其变化特征。结果表明：气温和降水呈夏季高、冬季低的典型季风气候特征。土壤湿度空间分异显著，泰安站和新泰站秋季达峰值，宁阳站和东平站冬季达峰值，肥城站春季到冬季呈持续上升趋势。夏季降水是土壤水分最有效、最稳定的补给来源，所有区域均呈显著正相关；春秋两季的降水补给作用则存在区域差异。气温是土壤水分的主要消耗因子，春季和夏季多呈反向变化，冬季低温通常对应高土壤湿度。夏秋季气温的负效应常被降水掩盖，但控制降水后，气温的独立负向影响更为显著。总体来看，降水与土壤湿度主要呈正相关，气温与土壤湿度主要呈负相关。

Abstract: Based on soil relative humidity data from the Tai’an National Application Meteorology Observation Station and temperature and precipitation data from the national basic meteorological stations during 2015~2024, this study employed Pearson correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis to investigate the correlations and variation characteristics between shallow soil moisture and precipitation/temperature under different seasonal conditions. The results showed that temperature and precipitation exhibited typical monsoon climate characteristics, being higher in summer and lower in winter. Soil moisture demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity: it peaked in autumn at the Tai’an and Xintai stations, peaked in winter at the Ningyang and Dongping stations, and showed a continuous increasing trend from spring to winter at the Feicheng station. Summer precipitation was the most effective and stable source of soil moisture recharge, showing a significant positive correlation in all regions; the recharge effect of precipitation in spring and autumn, however, exhibited regional differences. Temperature was a primary consumption factor for soil moisture, generally showing an inverse relationship in spring and summer. Low winter temperatures typically corresponded to high soil moisture. The negative effect of temperature in summer and autumn was often masked by precipitation, but after controlling for precipitation, the independent negative influence of temperature became more significant. Overall, precipitation was predominantly positively correlated with soil moisture, while temperature was predominantly negatively correlated.