延迟退休对职工平均养老金替代率的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Delayed Retirement on the Average Pension Replacement Rate of Employees

摘要: 随着人口老龄化日益严峻，社会养老负担不断加重，如何最大化发挥社会养老保障体系的效能已成为当前亟待解决的关键议题。为了缓解养老压力，我国定于2025年1月1日起推行渐进式延迟退休政策。在我国现行的以现收现付为主、兼具基金积累制的统账结合模式下，企业职工的平均养老金替代率成为衡量退休人员生活待遇水平的重要指标。本文通过构建回归模型和预测模型，旨在揭示至2030年《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》目标达成之际，我国各地区平均养老金替代率的变化趋势。研究结果显示受经济发展水平等多重因素影响，我国各地区企业职工养老金替代率存在明显的地域差异，即使提出渐进式延迟退休，其对养老金替代率的提高效用有限。鉴于此，本文提出以下建议：在推进渐进式延迟退休政策的同时，应充分关注平均养老金替代率的地区差异，并在待遇调整幅度、基金调剂等方面给予适当倾斜此外，还应积极构建多元化、多层次的养老保障体系，为退休人员提供更加全面、可持续的养老保障。

Abstract: With the aging population becoming increasingly severe, the social burden of elderly care continues to grow, making it a critical issue to maximize the effectiveness of the social pension system. To alleviate the pressure on pensions, China has scheduled the gradual implementation of a delayed retirement policy starting from January 1, 2025. Under China’s current combined system, which mainly relies on a pay-as-you-go approach while also incorporating fund accumulation, the average pension replacement rate for enterprise employees is an important indicator to measure the living standards of retirees. This paper constructs regression and prediction models to reveal the trend in average pension replacement rates across regions in China by 2030, the target year for the goals set in the “Healthy China 2030” plan. The results show that due to multiple factors such as economic development levels, there are significant regional differences in the enterprise employees’ pension replacement rates, and even the introduction of gradual delayed retirement has a limited effect on improving the replacement rate. In view of this, the paper proposes the following recommendations: while advancing the gradual delayed retirement policy, attention should also be given to regional differences in average pension replacement rates, and appropriate adjustments should be made in terms of benefit adjustments and fund redistribution. In addition, a diversified and multi-level pension system should be actively constructed to provide retirees with a more comprehensive and sustainable social security.