基于系统动力学的学科建设评估研究

Research on Discipline Construction Evaluation Based on System Dynamics

摘要: 在军队院校内涵式发展背景下，学科建设评估作为提升为战育人能力的重要政策工具，对学科可持续发展具有关键影响。本文基于系统动力学方法，借鉴第五轮学科评估实践，构建了包含多级指标的学科建设评估体系，并结合指挥保障学科开展仿真建模与实证分析。通过引入资源约束、人员饱和效应及多类时间延迟等反馈机制，增强了模型的真实性与动态预测能力。研究进一步通过历史数据验证模型有效性，并开展参数灵敏度分析与多情景政策仿真，从而提出针对性优化策略。该研究为军队院校优化学科评估机制、推动高质量为战育人提供了理论依据与方法支持。

Abstract: Under the backdrop of connotative development in military academies, discipline construction evaluation, as a crucial policy tool for enhancing combat-oriented talent development capabilities, exerts a critical impact on the sustainable development of disciplines. This paper employs a system dynamics approach, draws on the practices of the fifth round of discipline evaluation, and constructs a multi-level indicator-based evaluation system for discipline construction. Combined with command and support disciplines, simulation modeling and empirical analysis are conducted. By incorporating feedback mechanisms such as resource constraints, personnel saturation effects, and various time delays, the model’s realism and dynamic predictive capability are enhanced. The study further validates the model’s effectiveness using historical data and conducts parameter sensitivity analysis and multi-scenario policy simulations, thereby proposing targeted optimization strategies. This research provides theoretical foundations and methodological support for military academies to optimize discipline evaluation mechanisms and promote high-quality, combat-oriented talent development.