电商政策对农村居民收入的影响研究——基于国家电商示范县的实证

Study on the Impact of E-Commerce Policies on Rural Residents’ Income—An Empirical Study Based on National E-Commerce Demonstration Counties

摘要: 文章以国家电子商务进农村综合示范县政策为一项准自然实验，基于2011~2022年全国721个区县的面板数据，采用多期双重差分法(DID)实证检验了农村电商发展对农村居民收入的影响及其内在机制。基准回归结果表明，示范县政策实施显著促进了农村居民收入增长，平均提升幅度约为3.7%。平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验以及PSM-DID (倾向得分匹配)估计，均证实了这一结论的可靠性。机制分析发现，政策通过激励农户扩大农作物总播种面积这一生产规模效应，形成了“政策冲击–扩大生产–增加产出–提高收入”的部分中介路径。进一步的拓展性分析表明，公共卫生事件(新冠疫情)对政策效果具有显著的正向调节作用；同时，政策效应存在异质性，在数字基础设施与经济发展水平较高的地区更为突出。基于此，文章提出了几条对策建议：(1) 强化农村电商与农业现代化深度融合，提升产业附加值；(2) 实施差异化区域推进策略，弥补中西部发展短板；(3) 加强数字技能与电商人才培育，增强内生动力。

Abstract: This article takes the national policy of comprehensive demonstration counties for e-commerce in rural areas as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the panel data of 721 counties and districts across the country from 2011 to 2022, it empirically examines the impact of rural e-commerce development on rural residents’ income and its underlying mechanism using the multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) method. The benchmark regression results show that the implementation of the demonstration county policy significantly promotes the growth of rural residents’ income, with an average increase of approximately 3.7%. The parallel trend test, placebo test, and PSM-DID (propensity score matching) estimation all confirm the reliability of this conclusion. The mechanism analysis reveals that the policy forms a partial mediating path of “policy shock—expanded production—increased output—higher income” by stimulating farmers to expand the total sown area of crops through the production scale effect. Further exploratory analysis indicates that public health events (the COVID-19 pandemic) have a significant positive moderating effect on the policy effect; meanwhile, the policy effect shows heterogeneity and is more prominent in regions with higher levels of digital infrastructure and economic development. Based on this, the article puts forward several policy suggestions: (1) Strengthen the deep integration of rural e-commerce and agricultural modernization to enhance industrial added value; (2) Implement differentiated regional promotion strategies to make up for the development shortfalls in the central and western regions; (3) Enhance the cultivation of digital skills and e-commerce talents to boost endogenous impetus.