喀斯特石漠化治理成效与逆向风险的空间分异——基于文山州CRITIC权重法的驱动解析

Spatial Difference between Karst Stone Desertification Control Effectiveness and Reverse Risk—Driven Analysis Based on Wenshan Prefecture CRITIC Weight Method

摘要: 本研究以文山壮族苗族自治州(以下简称文山州)第三、四次岩溶地区石漠化的监测结果为基础，通过石漠化土地面积变化量、治理程度、演变原因、演变类型四个方面，对指标冲突性与信息量动态赋权，从而量化人为与自然驱动力的交互效应，厘清不同区域石漠化治理差异和逆向风险分异特征。研究结果表明：(1) 2016~2021年石漠化土地面积整体缩减，但潜在石漠化区域变化率较高，存在逆向演变风险。岩溶地区存在边治理边退化的风险，过度樵采、不适当耕作方式等人为干扰因素是主要退化诱因；(2) CRITIC权重分析表明，人为干预中封山管护对顺向演替贡献显著，而不适当经营方式是逆向演替主因。未来，可通过各县市改善–退化类型优化自然恢复与人工干预的协同路径，降低“二次石漠化”发生概率。

Abstract: This study is based on the monitoring results of the third and fourth karst areas of Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Wenshan Prefecture). By dynamically empowering the conflict of indicators and the amount of information from four aspects: the change in the area of stony desertification, the degree of governance, the evolutionary reasons, and evolution type, the interaction effect between man-made and natural driving forces is quantified, and the differences in the control of stony desertification and the characteristics of reverse risk differentiation in different regions are clarified. The research results show that: (1) The overall area of stony desertification has decreased from 2016 to 2021, but the change rate of potential stony desertification areas is relatively high, and there is a risk of reverse evolution. There is a risk of degradation while managing and degrading in karst areas. Human interference factors such as excessive logging and inappropriate farming methods are the main causes of degradation. (2) CRITIC weight analysis shows that in human intervention, mountain closure management and maintenance contribute significantly to forward succession, while inappropriate business methods are the main cause of reverse succession. In the future, the coordinated path between natural recovery and manual intervention can be optimized through the improvement-degradation type of counties and cities, and the probability of “secondary desertification” can be reduced.